Trump's Iran Tariff: UAE, China Lead List Of Those At Risk

China and the United Arab Emirates are Iran’s largest trading partners, putting them at the top of the list of countries at risk of being hit by President Donald Trump’s 25% tariff threat. 

Trump said Monday he would impose a 25% tariff on goods from nations doing business with Iran, which also puts the US’s European allies in the mix. 

The initiative, which Trump said would take effect “immediately,” is likely intended to further isolate and pressurize Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s regime as it cracks down on more than two weeks of nationwide protests. The US leader has openly backed the demonstrators, and had already made a series of non-specific threats to intervene. 

China — with which Trump agreed a trade truce in October — tops the ranking of Tehran’s trading partners, with commerce amounting to $17.8 billion in 2024, according to the International Monetary Fund. Iran sends close to 90% of its oil to China. 

The UAE comes second in the ranking with $16.1 billion, before a large drop off to Turkey in third, with $8.8 billion. 

European economies are also exposed. Iran’s trade with Germany and Switzerland amounted to almost $3.5 billion combined. India, another country to have grappled with Washington over trade, is fourth on the list. Uzbekistan, with which Trump announced a trade and economic deal in November, had $1.3 billion in trade with Iran in 2024. 

Trump didn’t specify which transactions, goods, or entities would be subject to the tariffs, or how they would be enforced. Iranian trade data is opaque, as the country publishes limited statistics to avoid sanctions and operates routes through third countries.

Iranian protests erupted late last year after a sudden collapse in the value of the currency, partly as a result of severe economic sanctions linked to the country’s nuclear program. They have since broadened into the biggest and most violent challenge to Khamenei’s rule, capturing the attention of world leaders and inflating the price of oil. 

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on Tuesday became the first Group of Seven leader to predict the downfall of Iran’s regime, saying it’s in its “final days.”

China, the UAE, Turkey and India have has yet to comment on the proposed measures.