The Federal Reserve and its peers in the euro zone and Japan will probably keep interest rates steady in the coming week, opting to bide their time before potential further hikes.
Three days of decisions starting on Wednesday in Washington are likely to affirm a hawkish stance balanced by a measured pace as policymakers confront inflation risks ranging from surging energy prices to the artificial intelligence boom.
The Fed raised rates in September for the first time since 2023 and signaled another increase was likely this year. While US inflation data has come in hot since then, officials seem in no rush to deliver another hike. Instead, economists and investors expect a move at the final meeting of 2026, in December.
Chairman Kevin Warsh, who's eschewed guidance on future moves, will face a tricky test at his post-meeting press conference. He probably won't offer much insight about December, but may also not want to sway market bets away from the current expectation for a hike.
Fed watchers may need to wait until after the meeting to hear what other US central bankers say about the prospects for policy.
What Bloomberg Economics Says:
“We still see the Fed on hold through year-end. Higher borrowing costs are working their way through the economy, and there's a risk that an AI-related market correction around the midterm elections could tighten financial conditions abruptly.”
—Anna Wong. For full analysis, click here
The European Central Bank on Thursday could offer its own signals on a hike in December, in a decision overshadowed by France's bond-market troubles. The following day, the Bank of Japan will probably keep its rate steady while holding the door open to a move at the end of the year.
In contrast to the no-change expectations from those big-three Group of Seven decisions, other central banks may well deliver action.
Most forecasters anticipate a hike from New Zealand on Wednesday, while several economists see the first such move in three years materializing at the Bank of Canada on the same day.
Elsewhere, US and euro-zone growth data, the UK budget, and rate decisions from Colombia to Thailand will be among the highlights.
Click here for what happened in the past week, and below is our wrap of what's coming up in the global economy.
US and Canada
A day after the central bank decision, the US government offers its initial estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product as well as the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.
Economic growth likely accelerated during the July-September period, thanks to robust business investment and resilient consumer spending.
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model forecasts a 3.5% annualized growth rate for the quarter, which would be the strongest in a year. The government's GDP report on Thursday may also show a narrower gauge of underlying demand — final sales to private domestic purchasers — registered the strongest back-to-back quarters of growth in five years.
That measure excludes often-volatile data on net exports and inventories, as well as government spending. While the GDP report also includes a quarterly read on the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed's inflation figure of choice, monthly figures released at the same time are projected to show price growth quickened in September.
Looking north, Canadian GDP likely remained flat in August with a 0.2% expansion, and on Friday, Statistics Canada will offer a flash estimate for September.
For more, read Bloomberg Economics' full Week Ahead for the US
Asia
Asia's central banks face another test of their inflation-fighting resolve as the global bond selloff, prospects for higher developed-market interest rates, elevated oil prices and a record-strength El Niño threaten to keep financial conditions tight.
Aside from the decisions by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and BOJ, the Bank of Thailand's outcome on Wednesday, forecast by economists at no change, is another highlight.
Bets on another Fed hike and the recent Treasury rout have pushed yield gaps between US and emerging Asian debt toward extremes, increasing the risk of capital outflows and currency pressure.
Inflation data will therefore command particular attention. Australia reports quarterly and monthly CPI on Wednesday, including the RBA's closely watched trimmed-mean measure.
Tokyo inflation follows on Friday, hours before the BOJ decision. Price risks remain tilted upward: oil stayed at about $100 a barrel in the past week amid Middle East supply concerns, while El Niño has intensified further and is already disrupting weather across Asia.
Growth signals will round out the week. South Korea reports third-quarter GDP Tuesday, while China's official manufacturing, non-manufacturing and composite PMIs arrive on Saturday.
Those readings will indicate how well Asia's factories and consumers are absorbing the combination of expensive energy, higher borrowing costs, and tightening global financial conditions.
For more, read Bloomberg Economics' full Week Ahead for Asia
Europe, Middle East, Africa
The first UK budget under Prime Minister Andy Burnham will arrive on Wednesday, at a time when scrutiny of the country's public finances is intensifying.
Chancellor John Healey's balancing act will be to reconcile the need to support consumers through the energy crisis while reassuring investors on fiscal discipline.
In the euro zone, multiple data points will illustrate the economic backdrop to the ECB decision.
Germany's Ifo index of business confidence on Monday may offer insight on sentiment at a time of political tensions in Berlin. French consumer confidence is due the following day, again with the possibility of an impact from political gridlock.
The first look at third-quarter GDP in the euro zone is scheduled for Friday, with slowing expansion of 0.2% anticipated by economists. Inflation data from the region's four biggest economists come the same day.
Further afield, South Africa's statistics agency will release rebased and benchmarked GDP estimates on Thursday, with the reference year changed to 2022 from 2015.
Zambian Finance Minister Situmbeko Musokotwane will deliver his 2027 budget on Friday. Investors will look for details on how the copper-rich nation will mitigate the impact of a potentially severe drought as it awaits final approval for an International Monetary Fund program.
For more, read Bloomberg Economics' full Week Ahead for EMEA
Aside from the ECB, a number of monetary decisions are on the calendar:
On Wednesday, Namibian policymakers will probably increase their rate by 25 basis points to 7% as inflation continues to surge.
Ukraine's central bank will announce its rate decision on Thursday at a time when the economy is slowing after Russian attacks on infrastructure and logistics.
The same day, Egyptian authorities are expected to keep borrowing costs on hold. Urban headline inflation eased to 13.9% last month, though monthly gains accelerated and the weakness of the pound also supports the case for caution, according to economists.
Latin America
Brazil by Monday should have a contentious nail-biter of a presidential election in the rear-view mirror. Along with congratulations from regional and global allies, the president-elect can expect some sobering economic data in the first 24 hours.
Brazil's September balance of payments report and federal debt data should underscore the dire need for fiscal adjustments. That said, a positive from the figures will again likely be that foreign direct investment and net portfolio flows continue to fund the current account gap.
In Chile on Tuesday, traders and economists surveyed by the central bank look for a seventh straight hold at 4.5% as inflation runs above both the 3% mid-point and 4% ceiling of the target range.
The bank's year-end GDP estimate of 0.25% to 0.75% might argue for easing, but its 4.3% estimate for 2026 inflation likely makes any conversation on that front a short one.
Monetary policy will be the main event in Colombia. The central bank again confronts climbing consumer prices — at 6.29%, Colombia's is easily the highest among the region's big economies — and inflation expectations.
Analysts surveyed by BanRep expect a divided board to plump for a second straight quarter-point hike on Friday, pushing the key rate to 12.5%. Last month, four policymakers voted for the 25 basis-point increase, two for a hold, and one for a half-point move up.
Mexico's flash third-quarter output report on the same day will likely highlight the resilience of Latin America's second-biggest economy, with the data expected to show some momentum sustained from the strong rebound that closed out the first half.
Analysts see modest slowing in the three months through September with a pick-up likely into year-end and in early 2027.
For more, read Bloomberg Economics' full Week Ahead for Latin America
--With assistance from Claire Jiao, Laura Osman, Vince Golle, Monique Vanek, Robert Jameson, Piotr Skolimowski, Mark Evans, Matthew Hill, Beril Akman and Tom Rees.
(This story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)
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