Cement Q3 Results Preview - Is The Worst Over For The Industry? Read Nirmal Bang's Analysis

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Nirmal Bang Report

In Q3 FY25, there was a notable rise in demand within the industry, starting in the final week of November and persisting through to the end of December.

We project an average volume increase of 6.6% YoY and 8% QoQ for the companies within our coverage. Regionally, projections indicate that the North will experience low double-digit growth of approximately 10% YoY, while the West is expected to follow with around 8% YoY growth.

The centre is expected to grow about 6% YoY, the East around 5%, and the South is forecasted to decline by 1%. Ambuja Cement and Nuvoco Cement are expected to achieve double-digit growth, whereas the remaining companies will likely experience mid to high single-digit volume growth YoY. In contrast, Lakshmi and Heidelberg are expected to report declines in volume on a YoY basis.

Our channel checks indicate that demand conditions have strengthened and are likely to remain robust, as Q4 is typically a strong period for cement consumption. Our demand projections have been revised to 6-7% from the previous estimate of 7.5-8% YoY for FY25, reflecting a weak growth rate of approximately 4% observed over the last three quarters.

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