(Bloomberg) -- Most Senate Republicans, unlike their colleagues in the House, are leaving themselves a bit of wiggle room on the impeachment of Donald Trump as they face the prospect of a Senate trial that would decide whether to remove the president from office.
House Republicans almost universally have insisted that Trump did nothing to merit impeachment by asking Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to investigate former Vice President Joe Biden and his son, Hunter. They unanimously voted against last month’s resolution that set a formal inquiry in motion, leading to public hearings that begin Wednesday.
No Republican senator has said publicly that Trump’s known conduct merits impeachment. But many GOP senators suggested they’re keeping an open mind, leaving some room for a change in case stronger evidence of wrongdoing emerges.
“I would rather not prejudge and just wait and see what happens,” Senator Shelley Moore Capito, a Republican from West Virginia, said. “I don’t know what most people are thinking -- that’s what I’m thinking.”
The House committees leading the impeachment inquiry have heard from witnesses behind closed doors for more than a month and now are moving to a public phase. If the Democratic-controlled House ultimately votes to impeach Trump the process shifts to the Senate for a trial. A two-thirds majority would be needed to remove Trump from office, meaning at least 20 Republican senators and all Democrats would have to vote to convict him.
The political calculations are different for senators than House members. They run statewide instead of in gerrymandered House districts where partisan supporters are clustered. Less than half of the 53 GOP senators will be on the ballot with Trump next year.
The few House Republicans who have publicly criticized Trump’s conduct have found it hard to continue in today’s GOP. Michigan Representative Justin Amash left the GOP earlier this year and, now as an independent, has called on his former colleagues to wake up to what he characterizes as Trump’s abuse of power. Florida Representative Francis Rooney announced he won’t seek re-election shortly after saying he was open to the idea of impeaching Trump.
Still, the prospect of Trump’s presidency ending at the hands of at least 20 GOP senators voting with Democrats is almost unfathomable as long as Trump retains his strong support among Republican voters. Even senators running in swing states risk a primary challenge from a more pro-Trump candidate.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell last week said he didn’t think there was a chance that a Senate trial would convict Trump “if it were today.” While some saw this as a statement of the obvious, it drew a rebuke from Democratic leader Chuck Schumer as prejudging the process.
Pennsylvania Republican Pat Toomey, who will have to run in a swing state in 2022, said McConnell’s expectation of an acquittal “sounds accurate to me” because he hasn’t heard anything yet that would be enough to toss Trump from office.
“That rises to the level that the Senate would decide by a two-thirds vote to remove the president from office? No,” he said.
Senator John Thune of South Dakota, the No. 2 Senate Republican, said McConnell was simply reflecting the mood of the conference when he predicted acquittal, though he pointed out Democrats are still investigating and may find more.
“We haven’t seen the full body of evidence, and they’re still talking to folks over there,” Thune said. “But the fact pattern so far at least is probably what the leader was reacting to and how that’s being interpreted by our members.”
‘Read the Transcript’
Substantial information about the allegations underpinning the impeachment inquiry has already been made public, including the transcripts of private witness depositions heard by the House committees on Intelligence, Oversight and Foreign Affairs. The White House also released a partial transcript of Trump’s July 25 call with Zelenskiy.
“Most of us feel the same way, and that is that we’ve read the transcript,” said South Dakota Senator Mike Rounds, suggesting that he didn’t see evidence of wrongdoing.
Toomey has criticized the president’s request to have Ukraine investigate the Bidens as inappropriate, but not impeachable -- a stance used by some Republicans who want room to disapprove of Trump’s conduct without backing the ultimate political penalty.
Trump on Sunday lashed out at that position, telling his fellow Republicans that this is not a good enough defense.
Trump does have a handful of vocal Republican defenders in the Senate, including Judiciary Chairman Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and Louisiana Republican John Kennedy.
Their defenses of the president include dismissing the House investigation as tainted by politics and echoing Trump’s insistence that there was no quid pro quo in his pressure on Ukraine. Kennedy even said a quid pro quo would be okay if Trump believed the Bidens were engaged in corruption.
“He is perfectly within his foreign affairs powers to ask for an investigation and to withhold American taxpayer money until he can be certain that the people who may have conspired with young Mr. Biden are no longer in the Ukrainian government,” Kennedy said last month, provided Trump was doing so “in good faith.”
Aid Withheld
Wyoming Senator John Barrasso, the No. 3 Senate Republican, dismissed the House inquiry as “a completely partisan impeachment.”
“I’ve not heard a single Republican senator say they would vote to remove the president from office,” he said. “People think that the Democrats are going to continue to look for whatever they can to remove him.”
Wisconsin Senator Ron Johnson, who lobbied Trump unsuccessfully to release nearly $400 million in aid for Ukraine before a visit with Zelenskiy, defended Trump’s conduct, saying the president personally told him there wasn’t a quid pro quo.
“The news media is always saying he’s trying to dig up dirt on his 2020 opponent,” he said. “No, he’s trying to figure out what happened in 2016. That’s my interpretation.”
Johnson said Trump just had “no faith” in Ukraine, asking “should we really be spending that much money, taxpayer money, on a corrupt system?”
Others, like Susan Collins of Maine, have generally tried to avoid the subject, saying she takes the question of being a potential juror in a Senate trial seriously.
Still others simply want to avoid talking at all. “No, I’m not going to talk about it,” said Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, who has been able to buck GOP leadership without suffering political consequences.
‘Historic Responsibility’
Senate Republicans have already had closed-door sessions to discuss messaging and review what a trial would look like if the House votes to impeach Trump. House lawmakers would get some time to present their case to the Senate. The Senate could vote to dismiss the charges, which takes just 51 votes, or move through a full trial before deciding whether to convict or acquit.
A rapid dismissal soon after the trial begins seems unlikely, senators say.
“I haven’t heard anybody really espousing a quick dismissal, like just put it up and dismiss,” Capito said. “I certainly think we need to hear it out from the House. This is a serious thing. You’re considering removing someone from office.”
Illinois Senator Dick Durbin, the No. 2 Democrat, said he hopes there’s a chance Republicans will keep an open mind and back a bipartisan process in the Senate.
He was one of 13 senators who helped figure out a process for the Clinton impeachment, including how witnesses would be called.
“It’s much more partisan than it was 20 years ago, but I still have some faith in my colleagues on both sides that they understand that we have a historic responsibility here, if it reaches that point,” he said.
©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
RECOMMENDED FOR YOU
POPULAR