Talking Point This Week — All Is Well?

India progressed in trade talks with the US and Chile, but faced tariff disputes after President Trump’s disputed claim of a “zero tariffs” offer, prompting India to propose $7.6 billion in retaliatory tariffs at the WTO. Meanwhile, in the US, Apple announced iPhone price hikes, Microsoft laid off 3% of its workforce, and Shopify joined the Nasdaq. Inflation data showed CPI steady at 2.4%, but tariffs raised inflationary concerns, while consumer sentiment and retail sales data were closely watched amid economic uncertainty.

Here's the set of key talking points this week:

All Seemed Well For Donald Trump, But...

Trump visited Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, focusing heavily on securing economic deals worth over $1 trillion, including a $600-billion Saudi investment in the US, a $200 billion Qatari purchase of 160 Boeing jets, and a $14.5-billion Etihad Airways commitment for American aircraft. He announced the lifting of sanctions on Syria post-Assad regime, met informally with Syria’s new president Ahmad al-Sharaa, and praised Gulf leaders while signing military cooperation agreements, notably a $142 billion weapons package with Saudi Arabia. Trump also pushed for Saudi inclusion in the Abraham Accords, accepted a Qatari offer of a Boeing 747 for Air Force One, and discussed nuclear cooperation and chip exports. From an India perspective, the surprising outcome was him expressing disapproval of Apple CEO Tim Cook’s plan to manufacture iPhones for the US market in India. This did not follow any comments from Apple themselves, but remains something that everyone will monitor in the months to come.

Inflation – All Seems Well - For Now

The so-called toxic uncertainty triggered by months of scattershot tariff threats by Trump, as well as actual levies now in place, were widely expected to take their toll on American wallets. But the data on Tuesday came in soft. In fact, it was the third-straight month US government inflation numbers were lower than forecast. Still, the chief economist at Fitch Ratings has a theory. “Core goods prices have yet to reflect the impact of the tariff hikes that have taken place since February, while services inflation continues to gradually ease,” Brian Coulton said in a note. “Core goods inflation is likely to pick up in the next few months as inventories of goods imported pre-tariff hikes get depleted. On his part, Jerome Powell mentioned that the world may be entering a period of more frequent, and potentially more persistent, supply shocks — a difficult challenge for the economy and for central banks. In India, the April CPI inflation remained low at 3.16%, a 69-month low! Rate cuts ahead seem a near certainty.

All Was Well With Earnings This Week

The week was marked by some serious moves in defence names. And while results were not the reason, the results that came out from Garden Reach were very strong, with revenues growing by 61% and profits up by 118%. Others like KPI Green and Borosil Renewables, as well as Blue Jet Healthcare, Dhanuka Agritech and Nucleus Software saw some strong reactions to their results and commentary. The key part about Q4 results is that the results on aggregate are better than feared, and the commentary from many companies is decent. Cement and metal businesses are also being confident about fiscal 2026, and the sentiment around IT services have improved with the trade truce between the US and China. May the good times last!

Out Of A Movie!

As we end, I wanted to highlight a piece of news out of South America. Aides to the opposition leader of Venezuela entered the Argentine Embassy in early 2024 when the government issued warrants against them for treason and conspiracy. Fifteen months later, they’re on the US soil thanks to what Maria Corina Machado—the Venezuelan opposition leader—said was an “impeccable and epic operation.” Machado remains in hiding, continuing her opposition to President Nicolás Maduro from secret locations. Quite something, eh? Have a great weekend!

Until Next Time...

Niraj Shah

India progressed in trade talks with the US and Chile, but faced tariff disputes after President Trump’s disputed claim of a “zero tariffs” offer, prompting India to propose $7.6 billion in retaliatory tariffs at the WTO. Meanwhile, in the US, Apple announced iPhone price hikes, Microsoft laid off 3% of its workforce, and Shopify joined the Nasdaq. Inflation data showed CPI steady at 2.4%, but tariffs raised inflationary concerns, while consumer sentiment and retail sales data were closely watched amid economic uncertainty.

Here's the set of key talking points this week:

All Seemed Well For Donald Trump, But...

Trump visited Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, focusing heavily on securing economic deals worth over $1 trillion, including a $600-billion Saudi investment in the US, a $200 billion Qatari purchase of 160 Boeing jets, and a $14.5-billion Etihad Airways commitment for American aircraft. He announced the lifting of sanctions on Syria post-Assad regime, met informally with Syria’s new president Ahmad al-Sharaa, and praised Gulf leaders while signing military cooperation agreements, notably a $142 billion weapons package with Saudi Arabia. Trump also pushed for Saudi inclusion in the Abraham Accords, accepted a Qatari offer of a Boeing 747 for Air Force One, and discussed nuclear cooperation and chip exports. From an India perspective, the surprising outcome was him expressing disapproval of Apple CEO Tim Cook’s plan to manufacture iPhones for the US market in India. This did not follow any comments from Apple themselves, but remains something that everyone will monitor in the months to come.

Inflation – All Seems Well - For Now

The so-called toxic uncertainty triggered by months of scattershot tariff threats by Trump, as well as actual levies now in place, were widely expected to take their toll on American wallets. But the data on Tuesday came in soft. In fact, it was the third-straight month US government inflation numbers were lower than forecast. Still, the chief economist at Fitch Ratings has a theory. “Core goods prices have yet to reflect the impact of the tariff hikes that have taken place since February, while services inflation continues to gradually ease,” Brian Coulton said in a note. “Core goods inflation is likely to pick up in the next few months as inventories of goods imported pre-tariff hikes get depleted. On his part, Jerome Powell mentioned that the world may be entering a period of more frequent, and potentially more persistent, supply shocks — a difficult challenge for the economy and for central banks. In India, the April CPI inflation remained low at 3.16%, a 69-month low! Rate cuts ahead seem a near certainty.

All Was Well With Earnings This Week

The week was marked by some serious moves in defence names. And while results were not the reason, the results that came out from Garden Reach were very strong, with revenues growing by 61% and profits up by 118%. Others like KPI Green and Borosil Renewables, as well as Blue Jet Healthcare, Dhanuka Agritech and Nucleus Software saw some strong reactions to their results and commentary. The key part about Q4 results is that the results on aggregate are better than feared, and the commentary from many companies is decent. Cement and metal businesses are also being confident about fiscal 2026, and the sentiment around IT services have improved with the trade truce between the US and China. May the good times last!

Out Of A Movie!

As we end, I wanted to highlight a piece of news out of South America. Aides to the opposition leader of Venezuela entered the Argentine Embassy in early 2024 when the government issued warrants against them for treason and conspiracy. Fifteen months later, they’re on the US soil thanks to what Maria Corina Machado—the Venezuelan opposition leader—said was an “impeccable and epic operation.” Machado remains in hiding, continuing her opposition to President Nicolás Maduro from secret locations. Quite something, eh? Have a great weekend!

Until Next Time...

Niraj Shah