Skymet Forecasts 'Normal' Monsoon In 2025

The monsoon season, during which India receives the bulk of its annual rainfall, is likely to be "normal" in the upcoming June-September cycle, according to private weather forecasting agency Skymet.

The rainfall to be recorded during the four-month period is expected to be to the tune of 103% of the long-period average of 868.6mm, with an error margin of +/-5%, the agency said in a statement on Tuesday.

Notably, the spread of normal monsoon is in the range of 96-104% of LPA. Both, excess and deficit rainfall hurts the rural India, which relies primarily on agriculture and allied activities as its source of income.

Jatin Singh, managing director, Skymet stated that the La Nina phenomenon in this season was weak and brief too. The vital signs of La Nina have started fading now, he said, adding that the occurrence of El Nino, which normally disrupts the monsoon season, is ruled out.

ENSO-neutral is likely to be the most dominant category during the monsoon period, he said, adding that the remnants of La Nina and ENSO-neutral together will shield the monsoon from any egregious outcome.

The second half of the monsoon season is expected to be better than the primal phase, Singh said.

"ENSO-neutral conditions, along with a forecasted positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), are expected to ensure a healthy monsoon. Historically, this combination has produced favorable rainfall patterns,” Singh said.

IOD is neutral now and is expected to effectively turn positive before the start of monsoon, which is likely to result in stability during the rainfall season, as per the weather agency.

Geographically, Skymet expects southern and western India to receive strong rainfall, with regions like Kerala, Coastal Karnataka, and Goa likely receiving excess downpour.

The agency also predicts adequate rainfall in central Indian region, which includes rainfed agricultural zones of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh.

However, the northeast and north hilly states may receive below-normal rainfall in the upcoming season.