India-Pakistan Conflict May Reignite In 2026, Warns US-Based Think-Tank

India and Pakistan, which were locked in a brief military face-off in May this year, may see the conflict re-ignited in 2026, according to a report released by US-based think-tank Council on Foreign Relations.

According to CFR, there is a "moderate likelihood" of another face-off between India and Pakistan next year. It pointed to "heightened terrorist activity" as a potential reason that may renew the conflict.

Notably, the three-day military face-off between New Delhi and Islamabad in May also came a month after the terror attack in Jammu & Kashmir's Pahalgam, which led to the death of 26 civilians.

To avenge the attack, the Indian forces launched Operation Sindoor in the intervening night of May 6-7, targeting militant camps in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. As per the Indian government, "over 100 terrorists" were eliminated in the operation.

This was followed by offenses by the Pakistan Army, which were effectively neutralised by the Indian forces. However, Pakistan army's shelling in the border areas of Jammu & Kashmir led to the death of at least 12 civilians, news agency PTI had reported.

The tensions simmered for three days between May 7 and May 10, till a ceasefire agreement was reached between the two countries.

Even so, relations between the two countries continue to be strained with New Delhi having suspended the Indus Water Treaty it had with Islamabad while blaming the state for harbouring and supporting anti-India terror groups.

CFR's Preventive Priorities Survey also points to other key conflicts such as that between Afghanistan and Pakistan that have a moderate likelihood to spark up again in 2026, owing to resurgent cross-border militant attacks.

Earlier this year, Pakistan was on the verge of a full-blown war with the Taliban-controlled Afghanistan. It carried out an airstrike in Kabul on Oct. 9 to eliminate Noor Wali Mehsud, the leader of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

Islamabad has blamed Taliban of providing safe haven to its ideological twin TTP, which is allegedly involved in various terror attacks in Pakistan.

Meanwhile, some of the ongoing conflicts are feared to continue into 2026. This includes "renewed fighting in the Gaza Strip, triggered by increasing clashes between Hamas militants and Israeli security forces, deepens the humanitarian crisis and exacerbates regional instability", and an "intensification of the Russia-Ukraine war", caused by expanding attacks on each side’s critical infrastructure and population centers, the think-tank added.