Monsoon in India is likely to make a timely onset this year, private weather forecaster Skymet said today, sticking to its earlier prediction of a below normal rainfall season.
Slow Onset
Expect a timely onset of the southwest monsoon, but expect sluggish start to the season, Skymet said.
- The southwest monsoon is expected to reach Kerala by June 4 (+/- 2 days).
- Monsoon to reach Andaman & Nicobar islands on May 22, with an error margin of +/- 2 days.
- Expect intense pre-monsoon showers of Kerala in the last week of May.
Skymet had in April said that monsoon rains are likely to be below normal due to growing El Nino conditions. It predicted rainfall at 93 percent of the long-period average (+/-5 percent) through June to September.
The Indian Meteorological Department, in its first monsoon forecast on April 15, said that India is likely to receive near-normal rainfall at 96 percent of the long-period average (+/-5 percent) and while El Nino conditions do persist, they're likely to weaken as the season progresses.
The monsoon was below-normal last year after two successive years of normal rains. A good monsoon, which waters more than half of India’s farmland, is crucial to boost consumption in the Indian economy. Summer rainfall and its distribution largely determine crop output and is among the most important factors in guiding food inflation.
So far, pre-monsoon rainfall from March to April—a phenomenon critical to agriculture in some parts of the country—has recorded a 27 percent deficit, according to IMD.
Watch the full interaction with Skymet MD Jatin Singh here:
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