The economic survey highlights the road ahead for the economy. It is a report card on the performance of the economy and works as guidebook for the budget estimates for the next year.
The economic survey highlights the road ahead for the economy. It is a report card on the performance of the economy and works as guidebook for the budget estimates for the next year.
The survey paints an optimistic picture. It says that there are signs from some high frequency indicators that the weakness in the economic activity has bottomed out and a gradual upswing is imminent. Here are the highlights of the Economic Survey 2012.
INFLATION, GROWTH
India FY12 growth pegged at 6.9%
FY12 industrial growth pegged at 4-5%
FY12 farm growth pegged at 2.5%
FY12 services sector growth pegged at 9.4%
FY13 growth pegged at 7.6%
FY14 growth pegged at 8.6%
High interest rates have hurt growth in short-run
Inflation pressures are moderating
Gradual upswing in economic activity imminent
Return to low inflation, high growth possible, necessary
Prudent macro-econ policies key to price stability
Primary concern has to be to boost economic productivity
Savings, capital formation expected to rise
Signs economic activity has bottomed out
India growth slowdown partly due to domestic factors
Farm sector output looks bright in next FY
Growth revival seen slow initially on fall in invest rate
Outlook for Indian economy looks promising
Inflation expected to moderate to 6.5-7.0% March
Need to maintain vigil on inflation, take apt steps
Inflation expected to further moderate in months ahead
High crude oil prices pose key risk to growth
Expects gradual upswing in economy
Top priority is to rein in inflation
Inflation showing clear signs of moderation
Renewed focus on supply side steps key to price stability
Growth rate seen picking up from second quarter of FY13
Industrial growth seen improving hereon
FISCAL HEALTH
Slippage likely in Centre's fiscal outcome FY12
Efforts afoot to minimise FY12 fiscal slippage
Centre's fiscal slippage on oil spurt, low revenue growth
Fuel product prices still heavily subsidised
Need direct transfer of subsidy for food, kerosene
Need regular adjustments in domestic fuel prices
Govt says states' fiscal situation seen on track
May have to redraw fiscal consolidation timeline
Suggests rapid fiscal consolidation
Fiscal consolidation to help control inflation
Favours transparent pricing as against price control
Rapid fiscal consolidation only way to keep inflation down
MONETARY STANCE
RBI could cut rates in coming months as inflation eases
Need better calibration of monetary policy
Need to examine policy rate, growth linkages
Scope to sharpen RBI step to tackle realty, share market bubble
Real estate growth seen hit if interest rates remain high
FOREX
Rupee's high volatility hurts investor sentiment
Need more aggressive stance to check Rupee volatility
Need to build FX reserves when capital inflows strong
Size of FX reserves may constrain step to check Rupee fall
Need to shift foreign flows towards foreign direct investment
Size of FX reserves may hamper moves to check rupee's fall
Current account gap of over 3% sign of growing imbalances
INDUSTRY
Favours foreign direct investment in multi-brand retail
Need largescale investments in infrastructure
Infrastructure finance remains a key concern COMMODITIES
Cap on regular farm products import should be decided annually
Need regular import of farm commodities in small quantum
Need to discourage unproductive imports like gold
Need to regularly import farm commodities as per Need
Must step up creation of modern grain storage facilities
Need to take perishable farm products out of APMC Act ambit
Favours single market fee to promote inter-state farm trade
Need special markets for some crops to facilitate supplies
GLOBAL
India "too much" a part of global economy
Slowdown in Eurozone economies to impact India
India needs to engage with global economies better
India can't just wait for global crises to end
Sovereign debt crisis in Eurozone may persist for a while
Global growth remains very weak
Iran tension may hit oil supplies, lead to price increase
MISCELLANEOUS
Large, cumbersome anti-graft laws can hurt institutions
To make cash transfer to poor easy via Aadhar scheme
Land acquisition issues vital
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