Russia's crude shipments are holding steady even as pressures intensify on the country's critical oil trade. China is once again the biggest buyer of Moscow's barrels as its purchases rise while flows to India plunge to the lowest in more than three years.
Volumes averaged 3.27 million barrels a day in the four weeks to Feb. 1, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. That's up slightly from the revised figure for the period to Jan. 25, but down by about 600,000 barrels a day from the pre-Christmas peak.
Deliveries of Russian crude into Indian ports continued to fall last month, dropping to about 1.12 million barrels a day from 1.2 million in December, to leave the January import figure at the lowest since November 2022. India's refiners have provided a lifeline to Moscow's oil exporters, stepping in to take the barrels shunned by their European counterparts. The drop coincided with a European Union ban on imports of refined products made from Russia's crude.
The hurdles facing exporters could soon get even higher, if India follows through on an apparent deal with the US, potentially imperiling the Kremlin's war chest. That accord would see Washington slash import tariffs on Indian goods, while New Delhi would, among other things, halt purchases of Moscow's crude, according to President Donald Trump's interpretation. India's premier made no mention of Russian oil when discussing the deal, and refiners are seeking government guidance.
The drop in flows to India has been offset by an increase in the amount being delivered to China. Tracking data show 1.65 million barrels a day of crude offloaded at Chinese ports in January. That's the most since March 2024 and the second-highest monthly total since Moscow's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
The tankers seen idling near Oman in recent weeks have largely dispersed. Most have now headed to Indian ports after delays of as long as six weeks, while two have headed through the Strait of Malacca to China.
Meanwhile, the amount of Russian crude held at sea continues to creep up, exceeding 140 million barrels for a third week. The rapid build-up of Russian crude at sea saw about 60 million barrels added between the end of August and the middle of January.
There has been no further action against the shadow fleet of tankers hauling Russian oil after the French navy seized the oil tanker Grinch. One of the two tankers that U-turned while heading south along the Norwegian coast has now resumed its voyage after its name was changed to TK Scorpio.
Separately, the EU is considering dropping its price cap, above which European companies are forbidden to provide ships or services to haul Russian oil, in favor of an outright ban, irrespective of the price. The move comes as the level of the cap was reduced to $44.10 a barrel from Feb. 1, down from $60 a barrel.
Crude Shipments
A total of 32 tankers loaded 23.64 million barrels of Russian crude in the week to Feb. 1, vessel-tracking data and port-agent reports show. The volume was up from 23.39 million barrels on 31 ships the previous week.
On a daily average basis, shipments in the week to Feb. 1 edged up to 3.38 million barrels a day, an increase of about 40,000 barrels a day from the previous week.
The flows are volatile, affected by weather, maintenance work, sanctions and the timing of shipments.
Separately, two cargoes of Kazakhstan's Kebco grade were shipped from Novorossiysk and another two from Ust-Luga during the week.
The expansion in flows last week was driven by increases in shipments from the Black Sea and the Pacific, which more than offset fewer cargoes loading at the Baltic ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga.
Export Value
On a four-week average basis, the gross value of Moscow's exports edged up to $985 million a week in the 28 days to Feb. 1, rising by 6% from the period to Jan. 25. The third straight increase in average prices was driven by rising tensions in the Middle East, which pulled up Russian crude prices alongside global benchmarks, and combined with a small increase in flows to lift the value of shipments.
Using this measure, the export prices of Russia's Urals from the Baltic rose by about $1.90 to $40.34 a barrel and Black Sea cargoes were also up by about $1.90 a barrel to $37.84. The price of Pacific ESPO crude increased by $1.20 to average $48.65 a barrel. Delivered prices in India rose by $1.40 to $57.63 a barrel, the highest in eight weeks. All prices are according to numbers from Argus Media.
On a weekly basis, the value of exports averaged about $1.09 billion in the 7 days to Feb. 1, up by $90 million from the revised figure for the previous week, with the small increase in flows boosted by higher prices.
Flows by Destination
Observed shipments to Russia's Asian customers, including those showing no final destination, rose to 3.04 million barrels a day in the 28 days to Feb. 1, up from a revised 2.96 million in the period to Jan. 25.
While the amount of Russian crude heading to both China and India appears to be falling sharply, the volume on vessels yet to show a final destination has soared, allowing for much of that pattern to be reversed in time. Tankers are increasingly showing interim destinations, such as Suez or Port Sudan, until they are well across the Arabian Sea, while some never show a final calling point, even after mooring to discharge.
Vessels are also spending longer at sea, with several tankers diverting from initial destinations on the west coast of India or in Turkey. They are also getting held up waiting to discharge at Chinese and Indian ports.
Flows on tankers signaling Chinese ports stood at 1.06 million barrels a day in the four weeks to Feb. 1, up from a revised 1.03 million barrels a day for the period to Jan. 25. The amount destined for India fell to just 350,000 barrels a day from a revised 400,000 barrels a day in the earlier period. But there is the equivalent of 1.63 million barrels a day on vessels yet to show a final destination.
Of that, about 1.37 million barrels a day is on ships from Russia's western ports showing their destination as Port Said or the Suez Canal, or those from Pacific ports with no clear delivery point, and a further 260,000 barrels a day is on tankers yet to signal any destination.
Flows to Turkey in the four weeks to Feb. 1 edged down to about 200,000 barrels a day from a revised 220,000 barrels a day during the period to Jan. 25.
Four-week average flows to Syria fell to zero. Tankers hauling Russian crude to the east Mediterranean nation rarely signal their destination and usually disappear from automated tracking systems when they're south of Crete, making it difficult to estimate flows in advance of ships arriving off the port of Baniyas, where they can usually be picked up on satellite photos.
ALSO READ: 'Haven't Heard Anything': Russia Says India Hasn't Confirmed Halting Oil Purchases Amid Trade Deal
Comprehensive Budget 2026 coverage, LIVE TV analysis, Stock Market and Industry reactions, Income Tax changes and Latest News on NDTV Profit.