The latest standoff between the US and Iran is likely to persist, with American intelligence assessing that recent military strikes are unlikely to change Tehran's stance.
According to a report by The Washington Post, a new US intelligence assessment concludes that Washington and Tehran are now "locked in an indefinite state" between peace and conflict.
The assessment, prepared primarily by the CIA and submitted to the Trump administration, comes as fighting has intensified following the collapse of a fragile truce earlier this month.
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The report says both sides appear unlikely to back down, pointing to a prolonged period of instability in the Middle East.
It also highlights the geopolitical challenge facing US President Donald Trump, whose expanding military campaign against Iran has yet to achieve a decisive breakthrough despite days of sustained bombardment.
According to the assessment, US officials believe the conflict has reached a stalemate, while further escalation — including the possible deployment of ground troops — would carry significant political risks for Trump without guaranteeing military success.
Despite the ongoing conflict, both Washington and Tehran have continued to signal a willingness to pursue diplomacy.
"We have received messages, without going into details, but the main point is that the diplomatic apparatus has been active in recent days and ideas have been conveyed to us by certain mediators," Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said, according to Iranian media.
"They continue to send signals that they want to talk, that they want to negotiate, but their behaviour is what we're responding to, and their behaviour is they're launching missiles and drones at ships, including tonight," US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters, according to The Washington Post.
Rubio added that while hardliners continue to obstruct progress, some members of Iran's leadership appear willing to negotiate.
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The report noted that previous US intelligence assessments had also highlighted the resilience of Iran's leadership. A CIA assessment in May concluded that Iran could withstand a US naval blockade for at least three to four months before facing severe economic strain.
Jonathan Panikoff, a former US deputy national intelligence officer for the Near East, told The Washington Post that the administration appeared to believe sustained military pressure would eventually force Tehran to make concessions.
"That assessment is almost certainly incorrect," Panikoff said.
He added that Iran's leadership has consistently prioritised the regime's survival, even at significant financial and military cost.
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