Israel's escalating military campaign in Lebanon marked by intense bombardment, rising civilian casualties and large-scale displacement could be part of a broader strategy aimed at altering the country's political and demographic landscape, Al Jazeera reported, citing analysts.
Media reports said that over the past week, Israeli strikes across Lebanon, including the capital Beirut, have killed about 400 people and triggered a humanitarian crisis as hundreds of thousands flee their homes.
The Israeli forces have also reportedly advanced deeper into southern Lebanon, raising concerns that the conflict may reshape the country in ways not seen even during the 2006 war or the 2024 fighting.
Attempt To Reshape Demographics
Michael Young, a Lebanese analyst and writer, told Al Jazeera that Israel may be trying to “redraw the demographic map” of Lebanon in an effort to pressure Hezbollah and weaken its connection with its support base.
According to Young, Israel's actions could be aimed at altering political realities in Lebanon once the war ends.
“Today, Israel's actions in Lebanon are tied to the political conditions they want to impose on Lebanon once this war is over,” he said.
Analysts say these conditions could include pushing Lebanon towards a peace agreement similar to the Abraham Accords or establishing economic arrangements with Israel.
Young added that Israel may also seek to demilitarise territory north of the Litani River up to the Awali River near Sidon — an arrangement reminiscent of earlier regional security understandings.
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War Escalation After Khamenei's Killing
The escalation comes after Israel and the United States assassinated Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on Feb. 28, triggering a broader conflict with Iran.
Two days later, Hezbollah launched attacks on Israeli military targets for the first time in more than a year in retaliation for Khamenei's killing.
Israel then declared the November 2024 ceasefire void and ordered residents of southern Lebanon to move north of the Litani River. Residents of Beirut's southern suburbs, including the Hezbollah stronghold of Dahiyeh, were also told to evacuate.
According to a report in Al Jazeera, United Nations peacekeepers have said that Israel had already violated the ceasefire more than 10,000 times before the latest escalation.
Displacement Crisis Grows
Lebanon's Social Affairs Minister Haneen Sayed told the news channel that more than 517,000 people have registered as displaced since Israel intensified its attacks. Of them, more than 117,000 are currently staying in government-run shelters.
Political scientist Imad Salamey of the Lebanese American University said the displacement could fundamentally alter Lebanon's social fabric.
“By forcing populations out of southern Lebanon, parts of the Bekaa, and the southern suburbs, Israel is effectively reshaping demographic patterns and creating large pockets of internal displacement,” Salamey told Al Jazeera.
Hezbollah Weakened But Still A Factor
Hezbollah had long been the most powerful military force in Lebanon, but it was significantly weakened during the 2023–2024 war with Israel, which saw the killing of several top leaders including longtime Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah.
The Lebanese government has since pledged to disarm the group and recently declared its military activities illegal.
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Analysts say Israel's evacuation orders targeting Hezbollah strongholds could be intended to weaken the group's relationship with its core Shia support base.
Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has also threatened to turn Beirut's southern suburbs into “another Gaza,” warning the area could soon resemble Khan Younis, a city in southern Gaza devastated during Israel's war there.
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