A fresh warning from Ali Akbar Velayati, a senior adviser within Iran's leadership circle, has raised alarm over the potential shutdown of the Bab al-Mandeb, a critical maritime chokepoint linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, Al-Jazeera reported.
His remarks suggest that Tehran and its regional allies could replicate disruptions seen in the Strait of Hormuz, escalating risks to global trade and energy supply chains.
In a post on X, Velayati warned that the “Resistance front views Bab al-Mandeb as it does Hormuz,” adding that “the flow of global energy and trade can be disrupted with a single move” if tensions with the United States intensify. The statement comes amid renewed threats from Donald Trump, who has warned of military strikes on Iranian infrastructure if Tehran does not reopen Hormuz fully to Western shipping.
A Strategic Lifeline at Risk
The Bab al-Mandeb, just 29 km wide at its narrowest point, sits between Yemen and the Horn of Africa, making it one of the world's most vulnerable yet vital trade arteries. Roughly 5% of global oil and petroleum products, about 4.1 billion barrels in 2024, passed through the strait, alongside nearly 10% of global trade, including key shipping routes linking Asia to Europe.
Its importance has surged as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have forced Gulf exporters, particularly Saudi Arabia, to reroute shipments via the Red Sea. Infrastructure such as the East-West Pipeline to Yanbu has become critical in maintaining flows. However, analysts warn that simultaneous disruptions at both chokepoints could block up to a quarter of the world's oil and gas supply.
Also Read: Saudi Arabia Evacuates Riyadh's Key Financial Hub Amid Iran Threat
Houthis Hold the Leverage
The Iran-aligned Houthis, who effectively control parts of Yemen's coastline, have already demonstrated their ability to disrupt Red Sea shipping. During the Gaza conflict, they targeted vessels linked to the US and Israel, prompting insurers to withdraw coverage and sharply reducing maritime traffic.
According to former US diplomat Nabeel Khoury, even limited attacks could have outsized consequences. “All they have to do is fire at a couple of ships… and that would lead to the arrest of all commercial shipping through the Red Sea,” he said, warning such a move would likely trigger swift military retaliation.
A Nightmare Scenario for Trade
Experts caution that a closure of Bab al-Mandeb, especially alongside restrictions in Hormuz, would severely disrupt supply chains to Europe. Elisabeth Kendall described the situation as a “nightmare scenario,” noting it could “disrupt, if not cripple, trade toward Europe.”
However, she added that while the chokepoint offers strategic leverage, escalation carries risks. A full blockade could provoke a broader military response, particularly from regional powers like Saudi Arabia.
For now, the threat underscores how geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to cast a long shadow over global commerce, keeping markets, policymakers, and energy consumers on edge
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