There are “no real signs of a ceasefire” in the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict, said Gulshan Sachdeva, Professor of European Studies, JNU as he spoke to NDTV Profit on the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
He said that while US appears increasingly anxious about winding down the operation due to its impact on energy markets and the global economy, Israel is pursuing a very different agenda, making a ceasefire unlikely in the absence of serious US‑Iran talks.
"At the moment, there are escalatory rhetoric from both sides," Sachdeva said. "This could be a strategy from both sides, but it doesn't look like you are going to have an immediate end to this conflict for the next few days or even a few weeks."
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Ceasefire Unlikely
He noted that the war objectives of the US and Israel are different. "Since a month now, it has become very clear that the war objectives of the US and the war objectives of Israel differ very, very radically." According to him, "even if the US is worried about winding up this operation and worried about the impact on energy markets and the global economy, Israel has a very different kind of intention."
Sachdeva argued that diplomacy remains the missing link. "Unless there are very serious talks happening between the US and Iran, which at the moment doesn't seem to be the case, there are no serious indications of that," he said. "So even if the US pulls out of this war, Israel and Iran are not going to stop this war."
He added that Iran's expectations are specific and firm. "Iran is looking for some serious talk, some kind of assurance that it won't be attacked again," he said, pointing out that Tehran “does not look like it is in a hurry", especially as it is "practically controlling the Strait of Hormuz” while the US "doesn't seem to have the appetite to send ground forces."
Calling the conflict "a very unnecessary war", Sachdeva said, "All the things that the US is now asking for whether it was nuclear talks or the Strait of Hormuz, those were already open and they were talking to the US. Now, it looks like the damage has already been done to the global economy."
He pressed on the domestic and alliance pressures on Washington. "The cost of war is on the US economy, prices have gone up in the US, which has its political impact, and there are also strains with NATO," he said.
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NATO's Stand On War
On US relationsip with Europe, Sachdeva remarked, "NATO is already facing very serious difficulties with the US. The Europeans are very clear - the US started this war without consulting Europeans. France, in particular, believes 'you can't really forcefully open the Strait of Hormuz to talk to Iranians.'"
“With more than 40 countries having discussed this issue, including India, and China raising objections at the UN Security Council where the vote has been postponed, we will see the same situation continue for some more time,” he concluded.
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