Former R&AW chief Vikram Sood believes the ongoing conflict reflects a fundamental miscalculation by the US and its allies. Speaking to NDTV Profit, Sood said Washington appeared to overestimate its ability to quickly shape outcomes in a region as complex as Iran.
“Iran is not easy to handle,” he noted, pointing to its geography, population scale, and decades of strategic preparation. According to Sood, Tehran has spent years building cost-effective military capabilities, allowing it to sustain a prolonged conflict despite pressure.
At the heart of the current escalation is the Strait of Hormuz—a move Sood described as “strategically sharp.” By disrupting a critical global oil artery, Iran has effectively introduced volatility into energy markets worldwide. “This will hit us again and again,” he warned, underlining the ripple effects on countries like India. The disruption has already tightened oil markets and could fuel broader economic instability if prolonged.
Not a Short War
Sood pushed back against expectations of a quick resolution. Contrary to assumptions that leadership decapitation would weaken Iran, he highlighted the country's structured political system and continuity mechanisms.
“Iran does not fall apart like that,” he said, noting that transitions in leadership are systematic and unlikely to derail its strategic posture. In fact, recent responses suggest a harder stance from the new leadership.
Expanding Theatre: From Energy to Cyber Risks
Beyond military escalation, Sood flagged the risk of disruptions to undersea internet infrastructure—an often overlooked but critical vulnerability. “If those links are cut, it would be a disaster,” he said, pointing to the potential for a parallel economic and communication shock alongside energy disruptions.
On threats from Pakistan amid rising tensions, Sood dismissed them as rhetoric, asserting that India remains capable of handling its own security challenges. He described Pakistan as an “irritant” rather than a strategic threat in the current context. Meanwhile, Gulf nations face a complex balancing act. While economically aligned with the West, their geographic and strategic realities tie them closely to the region's instability.
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