- Global risks report highlights rapid geo-economic and geopolitical shifts impacting the world
- Half of leaders expect turbulent conditions in next two years, rising to 57% over a decade
- Geo-economic confrontation tops near-term risks, surpassing misinformation and economic downturn
Gone are the days when change, whether good or bad, happened over a stretch. We live in an era when seismic shifts to geo-economic and geo-political dynamics occur in a matter of hours.
In the last decade alone, the world was brought to a standstill by a centennial global pandemic which no one saw coming; wars waged; and the air grew heavier to breathe.
In fact, the future does not appear free of evils either. The World Economic Forum delves deep into examining what its Global Risks Report provides a range of potential challenges and threats that may unfold over the coming 10 years.
The WEF defines 'global risk' as the possibility of the occurrence of an event or condition that, if it occurs, would negatively impact a significant proportion of the global GDP, population or natural resources.
According to the report, 50% of leaders and experts surveyed anticipate either a turbulent or stormy outlook over the next two years. The outlook deteriorates for the next decade and rises to 57%, with only 1% anticipating a calm outlook across each time horizon
Geo-economic confrontation has risen up the ranks sharply to emerge as the darkest cloud to loom over the world for the near-term, dethroning misinformation and disinformation. Along with that economic risks surrounding economic downturn, rising inflation and potential asset bubbles have also climbed up the risk ladder substantially.
"After a year of heightened uncertainty over trade policy, there is now a growing recognition of the escalating use of other economic and political instruments, from sanctions and regulations to capital restrictions and weaponization of supply chains, as tools of geoeconomic strategy," the report stated.
Other risks in the near-term include misinformation and disinformation followed by societal polarisation, extreme weather events, state-based armed conflict, cyber insecurity, inequality, erosion of human rights and/or civic freedoms, pollution, and involuntary migration or displacement.
Notably, the world order is becoming increasingly competitive. Respondents of the study anticipate that rapidly changing alliances, protectionism, strategic industrial policy and active influence by governments over critical supply chains are strong signals of a competitive multipolar world. However, they fear that multipolarism may exist sans multilateralism.
Climate change and related issues have become less pressing in the near term, but continue to be the most severe risks for a 10-year point of view. Experts have shuffled their priorities and are more concerned about what may be inflicted over the next two years.
However, environmental risks are also a prominent concern for the under-30 age group, in particular.
One thing that is projected to constantly worsen over the years are technological risks, especially surrounding excessive and adverse outcomes of artificial intelligence.
Finally, social issues such as inequality continue to plague the world. In addition to this heightened societal polarisation has started putting pressure on democratic systems, as extremist social, cultural and political movements challenge institutional resilience and public trust.
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