South Africa put in another statement victory at the ICC Men's T20 World Cup 2026 on Thursday, beating the West Indies by nine wickets with 23 balls to spare to become the second team in the tournament to secure their semifinal berth.
The Proteas restricted the Windies to 176/8 after winning the toss and opting to field at Ahmedabad. Captain Aiden Markram (82* off 46 balls) then led from the front as South Africa sent out a strong message that they're here to do one better than their runners-up finish at the last edition of the tournament.
With South Africa having officially qualified for the semifinals from Group 1, the race for the remaining knockout spot from the group has essentially narrowed down to a straight forward shootout between India and the West Indies. This is assuming India secure victory over Zimbabwe, failing which it would very well turn into a complicated three-horse race, which doesn't favour the Men in Blue. Here's India's path to the semifinals explained.
Where Group 1 Stands After South Africa's Win?
Following South Africa's latest win, Group 1 has taken clear shape. The Proteas sit at the top with four points from two matches and have already sealed their semifinal berth.
West Indies, meanwhile, are on two points but have completed two games, leaving their qualification dependent on their final group fixture where they'll take on India at the Eden Gardens in Kolkata on March 1.
India are yet to open their account but have two matches in hand, starting with their game against Zimbabwe (Feb 26) and then against West Indies, which makes their path straightforward.
The 'Clean-Slate' Scenario: Two Wins For Semi-Finals
The Proteas' victory in Ahmedabad has cleared the mathematical fog for Team India. A defeat means the West Indies are now stalled on 2 points and India no longer needs to rely on complex "if-then" scenarios involving other teams losing.
If India defeat Zimbabwe in Chennai, that would see them match the Windies points tally on 2 points. This would turn the final Group 1 game in Kolkata into a straight-forward quarterfinal between India and West Indies on March 1, with the winner securing their berth in the semifinals.
An India victory over the West Indies in their final group outing would see them leapfrog the Men in Maroon with 4 points, throwing all NRR calculations out of the window.
The path is simple: Two wins and you're into the semifinals.
The 'Three-Horse-Race' Risk
Should India stumble against The Chevrons tonight, the group descends into chaos. A Zimbabwe win would move them to 2 points, level with the West Indies, while India would remain on zero.
In this nightmare scenario, India would not only need to beat the West Indies in their final game but would also need South Africa to beat Zimbabwe by a massive margin to ensure a three-way tie on 2 points, at which point the NRR battle would still require a mathematical miracle from India. In this scenario, India will need to beat the West Indies by a massive margin, to give their NRR a boost and leave them with any chance of overtaking The Chevrons or the Men in Maroon.
However, if Zimbabwe manage to beat India and follow it up with a win against the Proteas, who may be tempted to rest players having already secured a semifinal berth, then that would see India's title-defence come to a screeching halt. In this scenario, it would only be the West Indies who would have a realistic chance of denying Zimbabwe a semifinal berth which would require them to beat India by a significant margin.
For now, India's qualification is now straightforward. Win their remaining two matches and progress. Any slip-up against Zimbabwe would reopen the net run-rate equation and significantly narrow their margin for error.
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