Why Did Physicswallah Share Price Zoom 5% Today? Motilal Oswal Sees 66% Upside

While the online business remains the main value driver, Motilal Oswal sees the offline business as a higher-ARPU monetisation layer.

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PhysicsWallah Shares Rise
Source: AI Generated

Physicswallah Share Price Today: Online education-technology platform Physicswallah shares were in demand in Friday's trade, with the stock rising as much as 5.14% to an intraday high of Rs 126.75 per share on the BSE.

At 9:41 am, Physicswallah shares were trading 3.4% higher at Rs 124.65, while the BSE Sensex was up 0.55% at 76,573 levels.

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Physicswallah Block Deal

Around 4.14 million Physicswallah shares changed hands in a block deal, adding to the market activity in the stock.

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Physicswallah Share Price: Motilal Oswal Initiates Coverage With ‘Buy'

Motilal Oswal has initiated coverage on Physicswallah with a 'Buy' rating and a target price of Rs 200.

At the brokerage's cited current market price of Rs 121, the target implied 66% upside. The bullish view is centred on PW's online business, which Motilal Oswal considers the company's primary value driver.

According to the brokerage, Physicswallah has built one of India's largest education platforms through a capital-efficient model that uses its large YouTube audience to create a free-to-paid student funnel.

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The company has 100 million-plus YouTube subscribers, while its revenue has compounded at around 74% CAGR over FY23-26, Motilal Oswal said.

Physicswallah Online Business: Key Growth Driver

Motilal Oswal expects Physicswallah's online revenue to grow at around 28% CAGR between FY26 and FY30E, driven by paid-user growth, expansion into new categories and AI-led monetisation.

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The brokerage expects Pre-IND AS EBITDA margins for the online business to improve from around 26% in FY26 to 30% by FY28E, helped by operating leverage and better customer acquisition efficiencies.

The opportunity remains significant, according to the brokerage, with India's INR15-16 trillion education market still substantially underpenetrated online. While online penetration in categories such as JEE and NEET is around 20%, penetration in newer segments including foundation, state boards and government examinations remains below 1%.

ALSO READ: 66% Upside? Motilal Oswal Bets On Physics Wallah's Online Growth, Initiates with 'Buy'

Physicswallah Offline Business

While the online business remains the main value driver, Motilal Oswal sees the offline business as a higher-ARPU monetisation layer.

Physicswallah increased its offline centre count from 28 in FY23 to 353 by FY26-end, while offline revenue compounded at around 85% CAGR over the same period to INR17.7 billion, accounting for around 45% of total revenue.

The brokerage believes the aggressive centre expansion phase is now nearing its end. A slower expansion trajectory, it said, should help improve unit economics as recently opened centres mature and utilisation rises.

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Motilal Oswal estimates offline revenue to grow at around 20% CAGR over FY26-30E, with profitability also improving.

Around 80% of offline admissions originate from PW's online base, according to the brokerage, making the offline network an extension of its digital student acquisition funnel.

Key Risks

Motilal Oswal flagged higher competitive intensity, weaker offline execution and centre utilisation, and higher faculty attrition as key risks.

Faculty attrition could affect student outcomes and brand perception, while adverse regulatory changes related to coaching institutes, advertising and data privacy could also weigh on the business.

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