UltraTech Cement is expected to report double-digit growth in fourth-quarter revenue and profit, with stronger volumes likely to support earnings even as pricing stays mixed and per-tonne profitability remains under pressure.
Bloomberg estimates suggest volume-led growth was the main driver of the quarter rather than pricing gains. While revenue is seen rising ahead of last year, margins are expected to improve only modestly, indicating higher sales helped absorb cost pressures. Brokerages broadly expect dispatch growth across the consolidated business, though views differ on whether realisations improved or weakened sequentially.
UltraTech Cement Q4 Preview (Consolidated, YoY)
- Revenue seen 12% higher at Rs 25,901 crore versus Rs 23,063 crore
- Ebitda seen 14% higher at Rs 5,277 crore versus Rs 4,618 crore
- Margin seen at 20.37% versus 20.02%
- Profit seen 14% higher at Rs 2,818 crore versus Rs 2,482 crore
The key issue for this quarter is whether UltraTech can convert strong demand and market share gains into sustainable profitability. Investors are likely to track volume momentum, pricing discipline and Ebitda per tonne, as these will indicate whether earnings growth can hold if input costs remain firm and industry competition stays high.
Here's what analysts expect from UltraTech Cement Q4 results:
Nuvama
- Consolidated volumes are expected to rise about 12% YoY
- Realisations may remain broadly flat sequentially
- Blended Ebitda per tonne may decline about 2.4% YoY to Rs 1,099
Nirmal Bang
- Resolution of the Jaiprakash Associates dispute gives UltraTech full ownership of the Dalla Super unit in Uttar Pradesh and related limestone mines
- Settlement removes obligations linked to Rs 10 bn preference shares issued in 2017
- Move improves ownership clarity, operational control and balance-sheet visibility
- No immediate earnings impact, but seen as positive for valuation and governance perception
Nomura
- Realisations estimated to improve 1% quarter on quarter in Q4FY26F
- Operating cost per tonne seen up 2% YoY due to higher raw material and power and fuel costs
- Volumes estimated to grow 10% YoY
- Ebitda per tonne seen improving by Rs 85 quarter on quarter to Rs 1,085
PL Capital
- Consolidated volumes seen rising about 9% YoY to about 45.3 mt on seasonal strength and higher market share
- Blended realisation expected to decline 1% quarter on quarter
- Consolidated Ebitda per tonne seen up Rs 81 quarter on quarter to Rs 1,088, but down Rs 24 YoY
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