The NSE Nifty 50 is likely to remain in a cautious and range-bound setup at the start of the new week, with technical indicators continuing to point towards a bearish bias despite Friday's pullback. Analysts believe the index needs to reclaim key moving averages and overcome immediate resistance levels before a meaningful recovery can take shape.
"Today's pullback, however, has not altered the broader technical setup. The index remains below all key moving averages, indicating a bearish bias. The upward-sloping trendline supports near 24,090 and the previous swing low at 24,025 remain intact. Until these levels are decisively breached, bulls are unlikely to give up. On the higher side, the recent swing high of 24,378 is likely to offer immediate resistance to Nifty," said Nandish Shah, deputy vice president at HDFC Securities.
On the upside, 24,378 remains the key hurdle. A sustained move above this level could improve market sentiment and provide confirmation that the recent rebound is gaining strength.
"From a technical perspective, Nifty continues to trade below its 20-day and 50-day EMAs, keeping the short-term structure cautious. The daily RSI remains neutral near the 50 mark, indicating a lack of strong directional momentum. Meanwhile, the rising ADX from lower levels suggests that volatility could gradually increase, although the absence of a decisive breakout continues to point towards a range-bound setup," said Sudeep Shah, head of technical and derivatives research at SBI Securities.
The RSI's neutral reading suggests that neither bulls nor bears have established strong momentum, while the rising ADX indicates that a sharper directional move could emerge as volatility picks up. Until the index breaks out of its immediate range, traders are likely to remain selective.
"Without broader market leadership, the Nifty could once again struggle to sustain momentum at higher levels. The coming sessions will therefore be crucial in determining whether Friday's rebound marks the beginning of a broader recovery or remains a technology-led bounce," said Hariselvan Radhakrishnan, CEO of HST Wealth.
Bank Nifty Outlook
Bank Nifty remained comparatively resilient through the week but continued to face selling pressure around the crucial 58,000 mark. The index closed Friday at around 57,496, broadly unchanged for the session, reflecting continued consolidation across banking stocks.
"The 57,800-58,000 region remains the immediate resistance zone. A sustained breakout above 58,000 could strengthen the recovery structure and pave the way towards 58,300-58,500. A decisive move above 58,500 would further improve the broader bullish setup," said Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money.
On the downside, the 57,300-57,200 zone remains the immediate support area, followed by the stronger support at 57,000. Holding above these levels will be important to preserve the prevailing recovery structure. A decisive break below 57,000, however, could trigger renewed selling pressure and weaken the near-term setup.
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