Brokerage commentary on Swiggy following its Q3 results points to a company firmly shifting gears-from chasing growth to enforcing capital discipline. The views are converging on one core takeaway: the company is deliberately slowing the music on growth and prioritising quality, margins, and internal efficiency. What remains contested is whether this strategic reset strengthens Swiggy's long-term positioning-or risks ceding momentum in a still fiercely competitive market.
While food delivery gross order value (GOV) growth remained robust at over 20% year-on-year, Swiggy made it clear that certain consumer-facing investments would be dialled back. Analysts broadly read this as a move away from growth-at-any-cost tactics, especially in quick commerce, where competitive intensity has remained elevated.
Adjusted EBITDA margins improved sequentially, reinforcing confidence that food delivery remains the company's most stable and scalable profit engine. Most brokerages expect this segment to continue delivering mid-teens to high-teens growth with gradual margin expansion over the medium term.
Where opinions begin to diverge sharply is quick commerce. Swiggy's acknowledgement that certain metrics-such as orders per day-are not worth chasing at the expense of profitability has been interpreted as both pragmatic and risky.
Ratings Steady, But Target Prices Diverge
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Against this backdrop, brokerages largely maintained their ratings, but revised target prices reflected differing confidence levels. Citi Research retained a Buy rating, reaffirming its Rs 450 target price. Citi flagged that Swiggy's Q3 commentary showed greater clarity on capital allocation, and sees valuation support from improving margins, even as quick commerce growth moderates. Its target implies roughly 37% upside, factoring in a roll-forward of estimates and slower near-term growth assumptions.
Morgan Stanley, meanwhile, cut its target price to Rs 375 from Rs 414, citing limited visibility on growth acceleration and the risk that sustained competition could cap re-rating. While acknowledging strong execution in food delivery during Q3, the brokerage remains cautious on when competitive intensity-particularly in quick commerce-might ease enough to support higher multiples.
Jefferies also maintained a Buy, but its conviction rested more on valuation comfort than earnings momentum. Jefferies highlighted that Q3 quick commerce losses rose to about Rs 910 crore, above expectations, underscoring execution risks. Its long-term valuation framework pegs a base-case fair value of Rs 440, with a bull-case upside of Rs 550 and downside risk of Rs 300, reflecting wide uncertainty around market share and margin outcomes.
Across brokerages, the consensus takeaway from Swiggy's Q3 is not bearish-but cautious. Analysts broadly agree that food delivery is stabilising, margins are trending in the right direction, and management credibility has improved. Yet, until quick commerce losses visibly peak and growth visibility improves, most expect valuation multiples to remain range-bound.
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