Brokerage radar
(Photo: NDTV Profit/ AI generated image)
Brokerages have identified opportunities across fintech, psu, insurance and financial sector, with fresh calls on Union Bank of India, Groww, HDFC Life, HDFC AMC, ICICI Prudential Life, ICICI Lombard, HDB Financials alongside a constructive stance on EMS and financials.
UBS on Union Bank
- Maintain Neutral with TP of Rs 195
- Healthy quarter; Margins expands sequentially
- Q1: PAT beat driven by higher NII and lower provisions; Weak deposit growth
- Loan growth remains modest; Margins expanded 16bp QoQ
- Management expects loan growth/margin improvement.
MS on HDB Financial
- Maintain Equal-weight with TP of Rs 800
- Q1- inline quarter; on the right track
- Asset quality showing durable improvement in net slippages data; provision coverage stable
- Middle East conflict and El Niño-related monsoon risks remain key monitorables for management.
Jefferies on HDB Financial
- Maintain Buy; Hike TP to Rs 880 from Rs 845
- PAT Tad Ahead; NIM Expands & Asset quality Improves; Awaiting Growth Pick Up
- AUM growth inched up led by strong growth in consumer
- NIMs improved on better yield & should stay range-bound
- With favorable seasonality in H2, credit cost can surprise positively.
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MS on ICICI Pru Life
- Maintain Overweight with TP of Rs 670
- Q1: Good quarter; deep value
- VNB and VNB margin beat estimates and consensus by 10%
- Aided by product mix and likely benefit from steeper yield curve
- Negative was weaker persistency in two of five cohorts
- Lower valuations for 11% FY26-28 VNB CAGR provides significant value.
Macquarie on ICICI Pru Life
- Maintain Neutral with TP of Rs 700
- Retail softness clouds margin gains
- Q1 VNB surprises on upside; retail APE growth subdued
- Margin expansion driven by favourable product mix
- Limited visibility on growth
Citi on ICIC Pru Life
- Maintain Buy; Hike TP to Rs 945 from Rs 885
- Strong VNB margin print
- Aided by favourable shift in business mix, improvement in cost ratios, and absorption of yield curve benefits
- Growth has largely revived and margin trends are robust
- Remain constructive on gradual re-rating.
Bernstein on ICICI Pru Life
- Maintain Market-perform with TP of Rs 680
- Good quarter with healthy margin jump
- Steps towards resolving stake-sale overhang
- Company sought to de-classify Prudential PLC as an ‘investor' from a ‘promoter'
- If the regulator were to permit the change, the stake-sale overhang would ease out.
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MS on HDFC AMC
- Maintain Overweight with TP of Rs 3065
- Q1 – decent quarter
- PAT above estimates owing to higher investment income and lower tax rate
- Revenue yields were better than estimates
- Operating profit was in line, and SIP flows remained strong
- Raise FY27 EPS estimate, and essentially maintain FY28 and FY29.
Citi on HDFC AMC
- Maintain Neutral; Hike TP to Rs 2900 from Rs 2800
- Steady quarter; incremental flow market share trends monitorable
- Calculated MF yield was higher QoQ post shift to new expense ratio regime
- Robust performance across most schemes in 3/5 years is likely to aid flows, within MF
- Rising competitive pressure from smaller AMCs and increasing share of fintech-led flows remain structural concerns.
Kotak Securities on HDFC AMC
- Downgrade to Add from Buy; Hike TP to Rs 3000 from Rs 2950
- Strong execution priced in; limited upside
- Core earnings growth in line at 10% yoy
- Equity mix up 100 bps qoq, margins maintained despite regulatory changes
- Blended yields improve in the quarter.
Bernstein on HDFC AMC
- Maintain Outperform with TP of Rs 3030
- Q1FY27 - Steady quarter helped by market recovery and a yield bump
- Market bounce drives higher AuM
- Higher opex growth dragged profit growth, driven by ESOP charges
MS on HDFC Life
- Maintain Overweight; Cut TP to Rs 730 from Rs 745
- Q1: VNB beat; all eyes on HDFC Bank channel
- Weak growth in the HDFC Bank channel has continued to weigh on overall APE growth and the outlook
- Management cited some pickup in Q1; sustenance remains monitorable
- Remain Overweight on attractive valuation.
Citi on HDFC Life
- Maintain Buy; Hike TP to Rs 990 from Rs 950
- Parent drags even as product mix change
- Flat business volumes at HDFC Bank is concerning
- Traction in non-parent channels is encouraging
- In a sweet spot to revive VNB growth to mid-to-high teens over medium-term.
Macquarie on HDFC Life
- Maintain Outperform with TP of Rs 860
- Parent bank channel - A drag on growth
- Sluggish headline growth affected by parent bank channel
- Protection and annuity enrich product mix; margins stable
- Valuation inexpensive.
Bernstein on HDFC Life
- Maintain Outperform with TP of Rs 810
- Another tough quarter, commentary provides context for a better outlook
- Banca sales remained weak, but the company said they have recovered counter share
- Recovery in sales at the parent bank should help with a better counter-share
- Company said they will prioritize growth over margins, and guided towards stable margins
MS on ICICI Lombard
- Maintain Equal-weight with TP of Rs 1920
- Q1 – weak quarter; uncertain earning outlook
- Two large losses in the fire segment and an adverse Supreme Court judgment led to prudent reserve creation, hurting profits.
- The latter development could have further material implications
- Core results were also muted
- See downside to estimates.
Macquarie on ICICI Lombard
- Maintain Outperform with TP of Rs 2430
- Multiple headwinds converge
- Fire losses and court judgement weigh on earnings
- Quality over growth as competition intensifies
- Conservative reserves offer protection.
Citi on ICICI Lombard
- Maintain Sell; Hike TP to Rs 1755 from Rs 1735
- Weak quarter; Multi-year de-rating not ruled out
- See structural challenges in the multi-line non-life space
- Sustained increase in competitive pressure with multiple new entrants
- Gradually declining distribution and service moats
- Lack of any meaningful rationale to drive price hikes in the key motor TP segment.
CITI ON GROWW
- Maintain Buy; Hike TP to Rs 255 from Rs 230
- Business Momentum Softens
- New Products Can Provide Upside
- Active user accretion moderates in broking
- Pace of market share accretion softens
- Ticket size drives MTF growth and cash yields.
Jefferies on Mobile EMS
- India Govt approved new Mobile Mfg scheme (MPMS)
- Dixon was the key beneficiary of PLI 1.0, but see higher competition now vs CY21
- Initial outlay seems higher but tenure at 5-years is tad lower
- ECMS has already approved 5 Camera Module - Kaynes, Syrma, ASUX, Uno Minda, Dixon - and 3 Display applications - Samsung, Dixon, Wangda.
Citi on Angel One
- Maintain Buy with TP of Rs 380
- Strong improvement in margin profile
- Focus on containing overheads provide further headroom for margin expansion.
Macquarie on Mobile PLI
- Mobile PLI 2.0 announced; favors Dixon and Amber
- Dixon is the clearest near-term beneficiary
- Framework also improves the business case for entering other component manufacturing, such as for batteries
- Amber Enterprises is actually a sleeper beneficiary.
Jefferies on Emmvee Photo
- Maintain Buy; Hike TP to Rs 400 from Rs 360
- Q1 Review: Beat and strong growth visibility
- Power demand recovery in FY27 should aid renewables
- Balance sheet is adequately funded for tripling of TOPCon cell capacity by FY28
- Raise FY27/28 Ebitda 9%/4% and project 29% Ebitda Cagr over FY26-29E
CLSA Price Action – Laurence Balanco
- Nifty continues to consolidate within a well-defined 23,100–24,515 trading range
- Support at 23,100–23,103 and resistance at 24,500–24,515
- This shorter-term range sits within a much broader consolidation pattern that has developed since the 2024 highs
- Major support at 21,743–21,800 and resistance at 25,600–26,319
- Until one of these boundaries is decisively breached, range-bound conditions are likely to persist
- Technical backdrop remains considerably more constructive in India's mid- and small-cap segments.
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