SpaceX Shares To Fly After Record IPO? Oppenheimer Initiates Coverage; Target Price Implies 41% Upside

Oppenheimer has initiated coverage on SpaceX ahead of the Elon Musk-led company's highly anticipated stock market debut, assigning an "Outperform" rating and a Street-high price target of $190 per share, implying an upside of nearly 41% from the IPO price of $135.

The brokerage's bullish call comes as investors prepare for one of the most closely watched public listings in recent years. At Oppenheimer's target price, SpaceX's market capitalisation would rise to about $2.5 trillion, significantly above the company's targeted IPO valuation of roughly $1.75 trillion.

The brokerage's valuation is based on ambitious long-term projections that envision SpaceX generating around $900 billion in annual revenue and $500 billion in Ebitda by 2035. Achieving those targets would require approximately $1.6 trillion in cumulative capital expenditure and spectrum-related investments.

Analyst Timothy Horan argued that SpaceX is uniquely positioned to benefit from the convergence of artificial intelligence, communications and space-based infrastructure.

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"We see it as the only vertically integrated AI company with the required capital, data, LLMs, hardware, manufacturing and engineering talent," Horan said in a research note.

According to Oppenheimer, SpaceX intends to combine communications and cloud-based AI services using space infrastructure, while leveraging terrestrial computing capabilities as a bridge toward that long-term vision. The brokerage believes the company's existing advantages in satellite communications and launch capabilities create a structural edge that competitors may find difficult to replicate.

Horan expects Starlink, SpaceX's satellite internet business, to remain the company's primary cash generator in the near term. Over time, however, he sees AI-related businesses, including xAI, emerging as the largest contributor to growth.

Oppenheimer also suggested that an eventual merger with Tesla is "plausible", although it expects both companies to remain part of a broader interconnected ecosystem to preserve access to capital markets.

Despite the positive outlook, the brokerage flagged several risks, including regulatory challenges, technological hurdles, execution risks and elevated investor expectations. It specifically noted that thermal management of advanced AI chips in space applications remains a significant technical challenge.