Oberoi, Lodha, DLF, GPL: Strong H2 Ahead For Property Stocks; Jefferies Flags Sales, Launch Momentum

Jefferies On Residential Property: India's residential property market is showing improving momentum ahead of the festive season, with Jul-Aug sales across the top seven cities estimated to have grown 8-10% YoY by area and around 20% by value, according to Jefferies.

Jefferies analysts Abhinav Sinha and Anadi Aggarwal expect their coverage companies to deliver 10-15% pre-sales growth in the September quarter, reversing a 30% decline in the previous quarter.

The launch pipeline for the third quarter is also building up, with some projects delayed to October due to the late start of the festive season. Jefferies expects a strong quarter for Oberoi and an improving trend for Lodha in Q2, while launch momentum is likely to rise for Godrej Properties (GPL) and DLF.

Stronger Launch Pipeline Could Drive H2

Jefferies' analysis of PropEquity data shows CYTD26 residential sales in the top seven cities have grown around 7% by area and 12% by value. Blended price realisation is up around 10% YoY, while the number of apartments sold remained flat during Jul-Aug.

ALSO READ: Track All Stock Market Live Action Here

System-wide inventory stands at around 18 months based on trailing 12-month sales, broadly in line with the five-year average. NCR and MMR volumes grew more than 10% during Jul-Aug, while Bengaluru remained flattish.

Among developers, Oberoi is expected to deliver its largest-ever quarter, with estimated pre-sales of around Rs 90 billion, including the Rs 79 billion Gurgaon Three Sixty North project. Lodha's pre-sales could improve around 10% YoY to Rs 50 billion, supported by its Bengaluru launch and steady MMR sales.

GPL pre-sales are estimated at Rs 70-75 billion, down 10-15% YoY, with its Rs 45 billion Verano Gurgaon launch expected in early October. Prestige is expected to post Rs 60-65 billion of pre-sales, while DLF sales could remain sluggish at Rs 5-10 billion due to limited launches and low inventory.

Phoenix's consumption growth is expected at 20-25% YoY, moderating from 30% in recent quarters.

Jefferies Sees Strong H2 Ahead

The delayed festive-season launches include projects with around Rs 200 billion of estimated GDV that have received or applied for RERA approvals, providing visibility into the upcoming quarter.

Jefferies expects the broader healthy demand trends and large launch pipeline to support a robust second half. Across its coverage, pre-sales are expected to improve from a 15% decline in H1FY27E to 50% growth in 2HFY27E.

The brokerage said property valuations on a PNAV basis are now substantially below long-term averages and expects a mild rate-hike cycle to have limited impact given growth visibility. DLF, GPL and Lodha remain its preferred picks, with launch and sales momentum expected to improve meaningfully in Q3 and H2.

Essential Business Intelligence, Sharp Market Insights, Practical Personal Finance Advice, Daily Fuel, Gold and Silver Prices and Latest Stories — On NDTV Profit.