Goldman Sachs has initiated coverage on India's metals space with a clear shift in narrative — from a cyclical trade to a structural growth story — driven by strong domestic demand and improving industry fundamentals. The brokerage expects India's steel consumption to double by FY32, positioning the country as the key driver of incremental global demand this decade.
The brokerage has initiated a constructive stance on large integrated players and diversified operators. It has initiated Buy on JSW Steel with a target price of Rs 1,490, citing strong capacity expansion, downstream integration and favourable raw material linkages. Shyam Metalics and Energy is also rated Buy with a target of Rs 1,065, supported by its diversified product mix across carbon steel, stainless steel and aluminium, alongside consistent EBITDA margins and cost efficiencies.
Among other large names, Tata Steel has been assigned a Neutral rating with a target of Rs 210. While the brokerage acknowledges potential improvement in India operations, it flags uncertainty around the European business and cost pressures as key overhangs. Similarly, Jindal Steel and Power is rated Neutral with a target of Rs 1,335. Goldman highlights strong capacity expansion and cost advantages, but believes current valuations already factor in much of the upside.
In contrast, NMDC has been initiated with a Sell rating and a target price of Rs 84. The brokerage points to limited earnings visibility amid ongoing diversification efforts and an unfavourable risk-reward profile at current valuations.
Goldman's core thesis hinges on a structural demand upcycle, with sectors such as infrastructure, construction, automotive and energy transition expected to drive sustained consumption. The brokerage notes that India's role in global steel demand is increasingly mirroring China's expansion phase between 2005 and 2020.
The brokerage also highlights that Indian steel companies have historically delivered superior shareholder returns compared to global peers over the past two decades. Crucially, it introduces a three-layer framework to evaluate companies — focusing on capabilities, raw material security and infrastructure readiness — arguing that these factors will define winners in the next phase of growth.
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