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Motilal Oswal Report
Indian Oil Corporation Ltd. reported an Ebitda of Rs 52.9 billion (down 46% YoY), below our estimate of Rs 118 billion, led by weaker-than-expected gross refining margin at $12.9/ barrel of oil (versus our estimate of $15.1/bbl and $19.2/bbl in Q2 FY23). In the refining segment, throughput came in at 18.2 million metric tonne (up 5% YoY), in line with our estimate (of 18 mmt).
Singapore gross refining margin remained steady and has been at $10.2/bbl in Jan-23-year-to-date; it touched a record high of $21.7/bbl in Q1 FY23. It stood at $6.2/bbl in Q3 and $7.1/bbl in Q2 FY23.
In the marketing segment, Indian Oil's domestic sales volumes stood at 21.6 mmt (our estimate of 20.5 mmt; versus 19.9 mmt/19.2 mmt in Q2 FY23/Q3 FY22, respectively).
Marketing gross margin stood at Rs 0.7/litre in Q3 FY23. However, oil marketing companies are estimated to be generating gross margins of Rs 11.2/Rs 2.3 on petrol/diesel, respectively, in Q4 FY23-year-to-date.
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