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ICRA Research Report
The YoY growth in the Index of Industrial Production slowed to a weaker-than-expected 3.7% in June 2023 from the revised 5.3% in May 2023, in contrast with the sharp rise in the core sector output growth between these months.
Consumer durables output contracted by 6.9% in June-23 led by a continued contraction in exports of such items, weighing on the IIP growth.
Moreover, growth in the output of capital goods and consumer non-durables moderated sharply relative to May-23.
While the YoY growth in the IIP remained steady at 4.5% in Q1 FY2024 vis-a-vis Q4 FY2023, the industrial gross value added growth in that quarter would be boosted by the expansion in margins in many sectors owing to lower commodity prices.
Looking ahead, the YoY performance of most available high frequency indicators improved in July 2023, relative to June-23; consequently, the YoY IIP growth is expected to rise to 4-6% in that month.
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