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ICICI Securities Report
India has retained its status as the fastest-growing large economy in the world, as real gross domestic product accelerated to 7.8% YoY growth in April-June 2023 (Q1 FY24), taking growth in H1 CY23 to 7% YoY – well ahead of China's 5.4% for the period.
With services (which constitute about 53% of GDP) growing 10.3% YoY in Q1 FY24, and likely to grow more than 8% in FY24 (its average growth in the past 26 years), we expect real GDP to grow over 7% in FY24.
Manufacturing grew 4.7% YoY in Q1 FY24, but is likely to accelerate sharply in July-December 2023 (benefitting from a low base and the impact of the production-linked incentives).
Aggregate demand will continue to be led by the acceleration in fixed investment spending, which increased by 8% YoY in Q1 FY24, but is likely to strengthen as private investment complements the continued strength of public investment.
The mild fiscal deterioration in April-July 2023 was partly driven by a massive 54% YoY surge in taxes assigned to states, which will mean reduced assignments for the rest of FY24.
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