Hindalco Industries expects a significant improvement in profitability over the next five years, estimating its EBITDA to more than double by FY32.
At Investors' Forum 2026, Hindalco Industries has guided for EBITDA to more than double by FY32 from FY26 levels, driven by higher volumes and profitability at its US-based subsidiary Novelis, capacity expansion and coal projects in India, and a sharp improvement in the downstream business.
At Novelis, Bay Minette expansion and debottlenecking are expected to take volumes beyond 5 million tonnes, with profitability targeted at around $600 per tonne. The Bay Minette project's cold mill, with 0.6 million tonnes of capacity, is currently being commissioned, while the 0.8 million tonne hot mill is expected to be commissioned in November. Commercial production is expected to begin in April 2027, followed by an 18-month ramp-up.
Of Bay Minette's 600,000-tonne capacity, 180,000 tonnes is expected to be allocated to automotive sheet production once OEM plans are finalised. Hindalco has reiterated a profitability target of $1,000 per tonne for the project.
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At Oswego, capacity has resumed and is currently in the ramp-up phase, with the full financial benefit expected by Q4FY27. Novelis will also phase down its 100,000-tonne Canadian facility, helping eliminate the adverse tariff impact.
In India, upstream capacity is expected to rise to 2.4 million tonnes from 1.3 million tonnes currently. Around 80% of Hindalco's $10 billion India capex is earmarked for upstream expansion. New coal mines are expected to generate around $200 per tonne in cost savings.
The company expects India downstream EBITDA to rise to $1 billion from $200 million.
Brokerage firm CLSA maintained its ‘Outperform' rating on Hindalco Industries shares and retained a target price of Rs 1,240 per share, implying an upside potential of over 27% from Tuesday's closing price.
The brokerage also expects Novelis' net debt to peak by Q4FY27, keeping consolidated leverage below 2x. Hindalco expects aluminium prices to remain around $2,900-$3,100 per tonne over the next 2-3 years.
On Tuesday, Hindalco Industries share price ended 1.02% lower at Rs 975.00 apiece on the BSE.
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