Global financial markets head into a crucial week dominated by developments around the US-Iran truce, with investors closely tracking oil prices, corporate earnings and macro signals from major economies.
1. Focus On Ceasefire Talks
Oil remains the central driver of global markets. While the ceasefire announcement earlier this week pushed benchmark crude below $100 per barrel and lifted equities, the agreement appears fragile. Disagreements persist over its scope, particularly regarding Lebanon, while Iran has yet to lift its near-total blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, continuing to disrupt global energy flows. Despite easing futures, physical oil prices remain at record levels, intensifying pressure on economies, Reuters reported.
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2. Global Policymakers Meet In Washington
Finance leaders will convene in Washington for the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. Key reports, including the IMF's World Economic Outlook and Global Financial Stability Report, are due Tuesday. The Iran conflict is expected to dominate discussions, with concerns over slower growth, rising inflation and higher borrowing costs. Developing nations, already strained by multiple global shocks, are likely to seek additional support.
3. US Earnings Season Kicks Off
Investors will also gauge the war's impact through first-quarter earnings. Major US banks, including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Citigroup, report early in the week, with expectations of strong interest income and investment banking gains. Corporate heavyweights such as Netflix, Johnson & Johnson and PepsiCo are also on the calendar. S&P 500 earnings are projected to have grown over 14%, though energy-led inflation could cloud outlooks.
4. China Growth In Spotlight
Attention will turn to China's economic data on Thursday, offering insight into how the world's second-largest economy is navigating geopolitical headwinds. GDP is expected to grow around 5% year-on-year in Q1, according to an LSEG poll, after slowing to 4.5% in late 2025. Investors will watch closely for signs of stabilisation.
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5. Key Elections In Focus
Political risk also looms large. Hungary heads to the polls in a closely watched election that could see Prime Minister Viktor Orban unseated after 16 years. Markets are already pricing in potential change, with volatility expected. Meanwhile, Peru's crowded presidential race may head to a runoff.
As Reuters notes, almost every financial market…has been trading in response to the oil price since the Iran war began, underscoring the week's central theme, energy-driven uncertainty.
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