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Systematix Research Report
Coal India Ltd.'s Q4 FY23 net revenue of Rs 381 billion (up 17% YoY, up 8% QoQ) was 3% above our estimate. Ebitda at Rs 91.7 billion (down 26% YoY, down 18% QoQ) was 18% below estimate.
The earnings miss was driven by-
higher than expected wage provisioning of Rs 58.7 billion, and
higher contractual and other expenses, which rose by 24%/55% YoY and were 11%/41% above estimates.
E-auction realisation at Rs 4,525/tonne (up 86%/down 10% YoY/QoQ) was 8% above estimates. Coal dispatch for the quarter was 187 million tonne (up 3%/up 6% YoY/QoQ). The cost of production at Rs 1,550/tonne (up 38%/up14% YoY/QoQ) was 13% above our estimate.
We have cut our FY24E/FY25E Ebitda by 28%/22% to factor in lower e-auction premiums and a likely 8% upward revision in fuel supply agreement prices.
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