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ICICI Securities Report
Our channel checks suggest industry volumes likely grew in mid-single digit YoY during July 2022 to ~29 million tonne, implying relatively strong ~70% pan-India clinker utilisation during monsoon period.
On a month-on-month basis, volumes are likely down 12- 13%, in line with seasonality. International pet coke prices have corrected by more than 30% over the past three months to less than $190/tonne.
Similarly, domestic pet coke prices have corrected by ~17% over the past two months to less than Rs 19,000/tonne. Assuming fuel prices sustain at current levels or correct further, we believe consensus earnings downgrade cycle is largely behind.
Investor's focus would shift back to regional demand / supply dynamics, market share gains, cost efficiencies and balance sheet strength, in our view.
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