Macquarie is turning positive on India's metal pack after the recent correction, with JSW Steel as its top pick, assigning a target price of Rs 1,319 — implying about 16% upside. Tata Steel also offers similar upside with a target of Rs 222, while Jindal Steel is pegged at Rs 1,193.
Among others, Coal India has a target of Rs 445, while Hindalco's upside remains relatively modest at 9% with a target of Rs 979. The brokerage's clear preference is for ferrous stocks, backed by improving domestic fundamentals and earnings visibility.
- Tata Steel – Maintain Outperform with TP of Rs 222
- JSW Steel – Maintain Outperform with TP of Rs 1319
- Jindal Steel – Maintain Outperform with TP of Rs 1193
- Hindalco – Maintain Neutral with TP of Rs 979
- Coal India – Maintain Neutral with TP of Rs 445
ALSO READ: 'Crude Is Still Rude': From Tata Motors to M&M, CLSA Trims Targets Across Auto Stocks
Global Metals Rout Adds Context to Correction
The bullish stance comes even as the global metals complex faces a sharp sell-off. Gold prices have dropped over 8% this week, marking their steepest weekly fall in six years, while copper has declined more than 9% this month, wiping out gains for the year.
Aluminium prices have also plunged—falling 4.4% in a single session to below $3,300 per tonne, the sharpest drop in nearly eight years. Broader weakness persists across metals, with tin down over 3% and zinc falling more than 2%. The rout has been exacerbated by rising oil prices, which increase production costs for energy-intensive metals, further pressuring margins globally.
ALSO READ: Gold And Silver ETFs Fall Over 5% As International Prices Retreat
Correction Seen as Buying Opportunity
Despite global weakness, Macquarie believes the 7–13% correction in Indian metal stocks since late February presents an attractive entry point. Domestic steel price hikes of Rs 2,000–Rs 3,000 per tonne are expected to support earnings, while demand remains relatively resilient. The brokerage highlights that Indian steel companies are better insulated due to strong local demand dynamics compared to global peers.
A key positive is the improvement in steel spreads. Domestic spreads are expected to average $250 per tonne in Q4FY26, compared to around $310 in December and around $340 for FY26 so far. Macquarie estimates EBITDA per tonne could rise by ₹1,500 sequentially, supporting near-term profitability. Stable trends in China and firm global steel prices further add to the constructive outlook.
Oil remains a swing factor. While Brent has eased below $106 per barrel after recent highs, volatility persists, with WTI trading at a steep discount and divergent weekly trends. Elevated energy prices continue to pose a risk to metal producers globally.
ALSO READ: CLSA Hikes Target Price On JSW Steel, Tata Steel, Jindal Steel By 7-30%
Essential Business Intelligence, Continuous LIVE TV, Sharp Market Insights, Practical Personal Finance Advice and Latest Stories — On NDTV Profit.