Bitcoin and Ethereum have consistently outperformed gold and stocks in the period following major global economic shocks, including in March 2026 following the outbreak of Iran-US conflict, according to a new study by Mercado Bitcoin, one of Latin America's largest cryptocurrency exchanges.
The research, led by Rony Szuster, head of research at the platform, examined 60-day windows following major economic or geopolitical disruptions, including the COVID-19 outbreak and US tariff escalations, and found that Bitcoin posted stronger returns than both gold and the S&P 500 in every period studied. Ethereum showed a similar pattern across the same periods.
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Between March 2 and April 2, Bitcoin gained 1% and Etherium rose 6%, whereas gold and silver plunged 13% and 22%, respectively. In the same period, the S&P 500 fell 8%.
In April last year, after the Trump administration announced sweeping tariffs, Bitcoin jumped 24% over the following 60 days. Gold rose just 8% during the same period, while the S&P 500 gained a modest 4%. Ethereum's recovery during the same window also outpaced both traditional assets, according to the study.
A similar story played out during the early days of the pandemic. When COVID-19 rattled global markets in March 2020, Bitcoin climbed 21% over the following two months, while gold and equities trailed well behind. Ethereum mirrored that bounce, reinforcing the pattern that both major tokens tend to recover faster than conventional investments after periods of acute stress.
Despite this, researchers urged caution. Szuster warned that judging Bitcoin's performance too soon after a crisis can be misleading, given how sharply both cryptocurrencies can swing in either direction.
The broader performance record is more complicated. While Bitcoin rose roughly 16% through March 2025 following the 2024 halving and the launch of US spot Bitcoin funds, Ethereum dropped nearly 50% over the same period, highlighting how differently the two assets can behave over longer timeframes.
Bitcoin outpaced all major assets in 2024 with a gain of 119%, well ahead of both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. Gold, however, emerged as a far strong asset in 2025.
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More recently, Ethereum has shown a dramatic turnaround. In early 2026, Ethereum surged over 50% in a single week, reflecting renewed investor appetite as macro conditions shifted and its ecosystem regained momentum.
For investors, the Mercado Bitcoin findings suggest that both Bitcoin and Ethereum may serve as powerful recovery assets in the aftermath of crises, even if their day-to-day volatility makes them far riskier than gold or equities over the long run.
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