BHEL vs NTPC: Stock Movement, Order Book, Power Capacity — Which Thermal Stock Has The Edge?

BHEL and NTPC have emerged as a striking divergence in India's thermal power trade, with the two stocks moving sharply in opposite directions despite their exposure to the same broader power-capex cycle.

According to the data from an NDTV Profit analysis, BHEL has gained about 70% since April 2026, while NTPC has declined around 10% over the same period. The divergence is largely about where the two companies sit in the thermal power value chain.

BHEL is an equipment supplier rather than a power generator. Its order book is estimated at around Rs 2.6 lakh crore, with roughly 75% linked to thermal projects. That gives the engineering company direct exposure to the revival in thermal-power equipment ordering without requiring it to build and operate generating capacity itself.

NTPC, meanwhile, is the country's largest power generator and has an installed capacity of around 91 GW, with roughly 81% coming from thermal power, according to the analysis.

Why BHEL Is Winning The Trade

The key distinction is the pace of thermal capacity additions. The data notes that thermal additions have remained relatively weak at around 1 GW a year, while private players such as Adani Power are planning much larger additions. This limits the near-term growth opportunity for an established thermal generator such as NTPC.

For BHEL, however, every new thermal project potentially translates into equipment orders. The company has also benefited from a strong order pipeline. Its order book provides multi-year revenue visibility, while recent execution has begun improving. BHEL is therefore being viewed as a direct beneficiary of the thermal-capex cycle rather than simply a participant in power generation.

NTPC is estimated to have around 42 GW of future thermal capacity, while the Central Electricity Authority's plan points to roughly 86 GW of thermal additions. This suggests a sizeable opportunity remains, but investors appear to be assigning a higher premium to BHEL's equipment-order visibility.

The analyst-rating split also highlights the divergence. BHEL has 10 Buy, two Hold and 10 Sell recommendations, with a -2.5% return potential, while NTPC has 28 Buy, one Hold and no Sell ratings, with 29.6% return potential. So, while BHEL has been the clear stock-market winner, NTPC could offer the stronger forward return potential if thermal capacity additions accelerate.

Essential Business Intelligence, Sharp Market Insights, Practical Personal Finance Advice, Daily Fuel, Gold and Silver Prices and Latest Stories — On NDTV Profit.