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Motilal Oswal Report
Systemic loan is witnessing a healthy revival, with credit growth accelerating to ~12.1% YoY as of June 17, 2022, led by continued strength in the retail and small and medium enterprise segment, while the corporate segment is also seeing a revival.
Disbursement growth across several retail products has surpassed pre-Covid levels, while corporate growth was led by improved utilisation levels and working capital requirements.
Among segments – home, vehicle, unsecured, and small business continue to do well, while the demand for commercial vehicle is also improving. The credit cards business is seeing a healthy momentum, with spends remaining strong over Q1 FY23.
While an uncertain macro and rising inflation can impact the demand environment, we estimate loans to grow by ~12%/13.5% YoY in FY23/FY24.
We expect our banking coverage universe to deliver ~26% YoY growth in profit after tax in Q1 FY23, while pre-provision operating profit will undergo a marginal YoY decline, largely due to higher mark to market losses.
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