Unusual trading activity, worth nearly $2 billion in oil and equity futures, has come under scrutiny after being executed just minutes before US President Donald Trump hinted at breakthrough with Iran on Monday.
Trump had said that Washington and Tehran held “very good and productive conversations” over the past two days, aimed at the “complete and total resolution” of escalating tensions in the Middle East. He also announced a five-day postponement of planned US military strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure.
The remarks triggered sharp market reactions, with oil futures plunging as much as 15% to slip below the $100-per-barrel mark, while Wall Street equities rallied.
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Data cited by trading platform Unusual Whales showed that just five minutes before Trump's statement, traders placed significant directional bets. S&P 500 futures worth $1.5 billion were bought, while oil futures valued at $192 million were sold—positions that would have yielded substantial gains following the market move.
Separately, a report by the Financial Times noted that around 6,200 futures contracts linked to Brent and WTI crude were traded within seconds ahead of the announcement, with a notional value of roughly $580 million. It remains unclear whether these trades were executed by a single entity or multiple participants.
Market observers pointed out that the timing of these trades suggests positions were taken at advantageous levels—S&P futures were purchased just before a sharp rally, while oil futures were offloaded near peak prices ahead of a steep decline.
The developments have raised questions over possible insider trading, although there is no confirmed evidence of wrongdoing.
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Responding to the allegations, White House spokesperson Kush Desai dismissed any suggestion of impropriety. “The White House does not tolerate any administration official illegally profiteering off insider knowledge, and any implication that officials are engaged in such activity without evidence is baseless and irresponsible reporting,” he said.
This is not the first instance where trading patterns ahead of major geopolitical announcements have drawn attention. Prior to the US and Israeli strikes on Iran on March 3, unusual bets were also observed on prediction platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi, reportedly generating significant gains for participants.
Meanwhile, Iran has denied the existence of any direct negotiations with the US. Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said, “No negotiations have been held with the US, and fake news is used to manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which the US and Israel are trapped.”
The episode underscores growing concerns around market transparency and the potential misuse of sensitive geopolitical information in global financial markets.
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