There is a strong probability that the southwest monsoon rainfall will be below normal or 92% of the long-period average, according to the India Meteorological Department. The IMD also added that weak La Nina conditions are seen moving towards El Nino.
The IMD defines normal rainfall as between 96% and 104% of a 50-year average of 87 cm (35 inches) for the four-month season. IMD sees 31% chance of below normal rains during the June and September period. It also sees positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions towards the end of monsoon season, currently the conditions are neutral.
El Nino conditions are likely to continue during the monsoon season, predicts the IMD.
The country will likely see below-average monsoon rains for the first time in three years in 2026, raising concerns over farm output, growth and overall inflation even as a war rages in West Asia.
‘Below normal' seasonal rainfall is most likely over many parts of the country except some areas over Northeast, Northwest and South Peninsular India, where it is likely to be normal to ‘above normal'.
The monsoon typically arrives over Kerala around June 1 and retreats by mid-September.
Rainfall in 2025
India saw "above normal" rainfall in the June-September 2025 period according to India Meteorological Department (IMD) data. Seasonal rainfall was 108% of its long period average (LPA) with any rains above 104% of LPA being classified as "above normal."
All India Summer Rainfall was the fifth highest since 2001 at 937.2 mm. It was also the 38th highest since 1901. Northwest India saw the highest seasonal rainfall at 127% of its LPA at 747.9 mm, the highest since 2001, and sixth highest since 1901.
It was followed by Central India which was 115%, South Peninsula at 110% and Northeast India at 80%. Conversely, rainfall over East and Northeast India was at 1089.9 mm which is second lowest it has ever been since 1901.
Essential Business Intelligence, Continuous LIVE TV, Sharp Market Insights, Practical Personal Finance Advice and Latest Stories — On NDTV Profit.