Four days after the declaration of assembly election results, Tamil Nadu is facing a hung Assembly, Governor Rajendra Arlekar who is yet to invite the single-largest party to form the government, two sworn rivals who are now reportedly willing to share power to keep a newcomer out, and no resolution in sight.
The verdict upended six decades of Dravidian politics — handing Vijay's TVK 108 seats, more than the DMK and AIADMK combined. Yet, the state is staring at five distinct scenarios, each carrying its own constitutional logic, political cost, and capacity to implode.
Scenario 1: President's Rule And Fresh Election Before Year-End
If no party or coalition can demonstrate majority support to Governor Rajendra Arlekar, he has little choice but to recommend President's Rule — which can be extended in six-month blocks and would compel a fresh election, most likely before the end of 2026.
As per political experts, for TVK, which won on a record 85.1% turnout, returning to voters may not be the worst outcome — the sympathy wave from being denied power could only deepen its mandate. For the DMK and AIADMK, a re-election is an existential risk. They would be asking voters to ratify a backroom arrangement that defied the verdict they just delivered.
Scenario 2: 9-Party DMK-AIADMK Patchwork Coalition
The DMK's 59 seats and the AIADMK's 47 add up to 106 — twelve short of the 118 needed. To cross the line, every available small party must be brought on board: Congress (5), VCK (2), Muslim League (2), CPI (2), CPI-M (2), DMDK (1) and AMMK (1), producing a bare minimum tally of 121.
There are two structural problems. First, the PMK and VCK ideologically cannot cohabit in an alliance, which means the nine-party arrangement is already at its maximum. Second, and more practically, each of those smaller formations has a price, as analyst puts it — DMDK chief Premalatha Vijayakanth and AMMK's TTV Dhinakaran are known quantities who do not come cheap. One dissenting MLA or one unsatisfied party leader collapses the entire arrangement.
Scenario 3: TVK Plus Fractured AIADMK
The most dramatic path to power for Vijay runs through a split within the AIADMK itself. Under anti-defection law, at least 34 of the AIADMK's 47 MLAs — a 2/3 majority of the legislature party — would need to break away and claim to be the original party, giving TVK a workable majority.
It is not without precedent in Tamil Nadu's fractious political history. But the critical variable is time: AIADMK's MLAs are currently housed in a Puducherry resort under EPS's watch, and the window for such a split to organise itself is shrinking. Would the governor hold his hand long enough for the arithmetic to rearrange itself — or act first?
Scenario 4: TVK Builds Functional Coalition
TVK brings in the PMK — which has already publicly demanded the deputy chief minister's post as its price of entry — along with the DMDK's Premalatha and AMMK's Dhinakaran, taking its tally from 108 to 119. Alternatively, an alliance with the Left parties and the Muslim League takes the number to 123 — but that route is currently blocked, with the Left, the Muslim League and the VCK having all formally pledged loyalty to the DMK.
This leaves TVK fishing in a small and expensive pond: regional satraps whose support comes with portfolio demands, public posturing, and the constant threat of withdrawal. Governing through such a coalition would test Vijay's political management before he has even been sworn in.
Scenario 5: Mass Resignation — TVK's Nuclear Option
All 107 TVK MLAs resign their seats simultaneously, voiding the Assembly's composition and triggering a constitutional crisis that forces the issue into the Supreme Court and the national spotlight. The historical parallel is pointed: in 1972, all 14 CPM MLAs elected to the West Bengal Assembly refused to participate in its proceedings, declaring the election illegitimate.
The mass resignation is the most powerful pressure instrument available to TVK — a signal to the governor, the judiciary and the country that the party will not quietly accept being bypassed. It also carries serious risks: it could be read as abandoning the very voters who gave TVK its mandate. Whether Vijay has the political nerve — and his 107 MLAs the collective discipline — to execute it is the defining question.
ALSO READ: Vijay's TVK Vs AIADMK-DMK — Who Will Form Govt In Tamil Nadu? Experts Divided | 10 Key Points
What Happens Next
Tamil Nadu's political crisis is unlikely to resolve itself quietly. The DMK has granted MK Stalin blanket authority to take "urgent political decisions", the AIADMK has its MLAs in a Puducherry resort, and Vijay has twice visited the governor without an invitation to form a government.
Each passing day without resolution strengthens the case for President's Rule — and weakens the moral authority of any government eventually formed by excluding the party that won the most seats. Whatever path emerges from Raj Bhavan's deliberations, Tamil Nadu's voters have already delivered their verdict. The political class is still deciding whether to accept it.
ALSO READ: Allow Vijay To Take Oath As CM: TVK Women Supporters Begin Hunger Strike In Dindigul — Video
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