Vijay's TVK Vs AIADMK-DMK — Who Will Form Govt In Tamil Nadu? Experts Divided | 10 Key Points

TVK is reportedly weighing a collective resignation by its 107 MLAs if either the DMK or AIADMK proceeds to stake claim to form the government.

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Read Time: 6 mins
Analysts warned that any attempt to block Vijay could generate a massive sympathy wave.
Photo: Videograb: PTI

Tamil Nadu is locked in an unprecedented political standoff. Despite providing the list of 112 supporting MLAs, including those of the Congress, Governor Rajendra Arelkar is yet to invite actor-politician Vijay to form the government.

Four days after Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) stunned every pollster by winning 108 of 234 seats — becoming the single largest party and breaking a 59-year Dravidian stranglehold —  TVK has no invitation from the Governor as the party doesn't have majority.

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TVK's 108 seats, bolstered by Congress's 5 in support, still leaves it 5 short of the 118 needed for a majority, while the DMK (59) and AIADMK (47) together hold 106 seats — enough, with smaller parties, to potentially deny Vijay power through a coalition nobody thought possible a week ago. 

Here's all the latest development in the state regarding the government formation:

1. Governor Tells Vijay: Come Back With Numbers

Vijay on Thursday met Governor Rajendra Arlekar for the second time in two days and staked claim to form the government as the single largest party. The Governor told him that TVK does not yet have the support of the required 118 MLAs and asked him to return with adequate numbers.

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Congress leader Anand Srinivasan described the situation as a "heads I win, tails you lose" scenario for TVK, alleging the Governor changed his interpretation midway — first asking TVK to show supporters, and then converting it into a coalition issue when Congress provided a support letter.

Meanwhile, the CPI(M), an ally of the DMK, will take a decision on Friday on supporting TVK in the government formation.The party has convened a meeting to respond to a plea from Vijay's Party for supporting it in forming “a new secular” government in the state.

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2. Posters Depicting Vijay As CM Surface

Defiant supporters of TVK put up posters outside the party's Chennai office on Friday morning, depicting Vijay seated at the Chief Minister's desk. The posters read "Chief Minister C. Joseph Vijay" with the Tamil Nadu Government emblem prominently displayed — a show of confidence from the ground even as the political battle rages inside resort rooms and Raj Bhavan chambers.

3. EPS Huddles With MLAs At Puducherry Resort

Around 40 of AIADMK's 47 MLAs have been lodged at a luxury resort in Puducherry, with rooms reportedly booked for the next seven days and legislators advised not to leave without prior clearance.

AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K. Palaniswami met the legislators late Thursday night, was formally elected leader of the AIADMK legislature party, and told MLAs to "wait patiently" as "good things will happen" — asserting confidently that the AIADMK would form the government.

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4. DMK Grants Stalin Blanket Authority

The DMK legislature party, chaired by MK Stalin, met in Chennai and passed four resolutions — including one sharply criticising Congress for backing TVK after contesting as part of the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance.

Most significantly, the party passed a resolution granting Stalin full authority to take "urgent political decisions" to ensure the formation of a "stable government" in Tamil Nadu. The sweeping mandate left every door open, including the unthinkable one.

5. The Unthinkable: A DMK-AIADMK Alliance?

Political circles are abuzz with a likely unprecedented DMK-AIADMK alliance to form the government, keeping TVK out of power despite it being the single largest party. The two parties have been sworn ideological enemies for over five decades, their rivalry rooted in the legacies of M. Karunanidhi and M.G. Ramachandran. Yet combined numbers — DMK's 59, AIADMK's 47, PMK's 4, CPI and CPI-M's 2 each — could mathematically cross 118.

6. TVK's Nuclear Option: Mass Resignation

TVK is reportedly weighing a collective resignation by its 107 MLAs if either the DMK or AIADMK proceeds to stake claim to form the government.

While Vijay has not made any public statement on the matter, party insiders indicate that frustration is mounting over the prolonged uncertainty. The threat, if carried out, would trigger a fresh election — an all-or-nothing gamble that could either dramatically amplify TVK's mandate or prove politically catastrophic.

7. Congress Announces Statewide Protest

The Tamil Nadu Congress Committee announced statewide protest demonstrations across district headquarters on Friday at 11 AM, condemning the BJP-led Union Government and Governor Arlekar for allegedly acting against the Constitution by attempting to prevent TVK — the single largest party — from forming the government.

8. What The Constitution Says — And Doesn't

Speaking to PTI, constitutional law expert and senior advocate Rakesh Dwivedi said, "The governor is entitled to enquire and require TVK to prima facie satisfy him about majority support, whether from outside or inside the government. The government should be stable. There should be no difficulty in obtaining letters of support from allies. If he fails, there will be a stalemate,"

He further said the state may face the president's rule and hence, the TVK must file letters of support or supporting leaders should join him before the governor in staking claim.

However, senior advocate and Supreme Court Bar Association president Vikas Singh termed the TVK not getting invited to form the government as "inappropriate".

"It is definitely appropriate for the governor to call the single largest party to form the government because it is not the case that the other two parties combined have a majority. So, he has to give an opportunity to the largest party if it has staked its claim to form the government…I think it is highly inappropriate for the governor not to call the single largest party for the purpose of forming the government here," he said.

ALSO READ: DMK-AIADMK Alliance On Cards? Vijay's TVK To Ask All 107 MLAs To Resign If Rivals Unite: Report

9. The Bommai Precedent And The Floor Test Argument

The landmark Bommai case established the assembly floor test as the ultimate and exclusive arbiter of majority, specifically denouncing the parading of MLAs or head counts before the Governor as substitutes for a floor vote.

The 2018 Karnataka case saw the Supreme Court drastically shorten the window given to B.S. Yeddyurappa, viewing long timelines as conducive to horse trading. Experts noted that some DMK MLAs could walk out during a floor test, thereby reducing the effective majority threshold — potentially allowing Vijay to survive a confidence motion with fewer than 118 votes.

10. A Historic Stalemate — And 80 Million People Waiting

The election recorded Tamil Nadu's highest ever voter turnout at 85.1 percent.

ALSO READ: Left Parties Mock Vijay-Led TVK's 'WhatsApp Outreach' To Reach Majority Mark In Tamil Nadu

Outgoing Chief Minister MK Stalin lost his Kolathur seat — a constituency he had won three consecutive times. Stalin resigned as Chief Minister on May 5.

Analysts warned that any attempt to block Vijay could generate a massive sympathy wave. "Anything these people are going to do is only going to make him more popular," said Congress leader Anand Srinivasan. For now, 80 million Tamil Nadu residents wait — as their next government remains hostage to the arithmetic of an impasse nobody predicted.

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