The India Meterological Department on Friday, May 29 said that monsoons in India will be below normal in 2026, while expecting rainfall to be 90% below average.
In a press briefing on Long Range Forecast for Monsoon Season 2026, Ministry of Environment Secretary Dr M Ravichandran mentioned that the average monsoon rainfall during the Southwest monsoon season between June and September, 2026 is expected to be 90% of the long period average.
The weather forecasting agency as predicted monsoon rainfall at 92% of the average in April 2026.
Ravichandran further mentioned that El Nino is evolving. As of now, El Nino conditions are likely to develop very soon .
"We are going to face El Nino in June-July. In August, little bit of moderate El Nino condition will be. In September, El Nino will be in Moderate to Strong category," he said.
This comes after the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned that a “super” El Nino event is likely to develop from mid-2026, raising concerns over higher global temperatures and changing rainfall patterns.
As per WMO's latest Global Seasonal Climate Update, sea-surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific are rising rapidly. This signals a possible return of El Nino conditions between May and July 2026. The report also forecasts above-normal land surface temperatures across most parts of the world during this three-month period.
“After a period of neutral conditions at the start of the year, climate models are now strongly aligned, and there is high confidence in the onset of El Nino, followed by further intensification in the months that follow,” said Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Chief of Climate Prediction at WMO.
ALSO READ: Super El Nino Warning: Scorching Heat, Weaker Monsoon Ahead — What It Means For India
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