India's power sector could face a greater hit from El Niño than any other country, according to a new report by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), which warned that the rising temperatures and weaker monsoon showers could put unprecedented pressure on the country's electricity system.
The report said India is widely exposed because an El Niño event typically brings two simultaneous challenges: first is soaring electricity demand driven by extreme heat and lower hydropower generation due to reduced rainfall.
And the other is that thermal plants may also struggle with water shortages, increasing stress on the grid.
Electricity demand has already surged this year as prolonged heatwaves and below-average rainfall boosted cooling needs across the country.
Coal-fired power generation in June climbed to its highest level since November 2023. Hydropower output fell sharply because of poor reservoir inflows. Although renewable energy generation has continued to grow, it has not been sufficient to offset the decline in hydropower or meet peak evening demand.
CREA said India's growing demand for electricity, as well as its reliance on weather-dependent sources like hydropower, make the country particularly vulnerable to disruptions caused by climate change. Traditionally, El Niño has been viewed through the lens of agriculture and monsoon rainfall, but its impact on energy security is increasingly significant, the report noted.
The warning follows expectations from meteorological agencies that El Niño conditions will intensify in the next few months. One of the driest Junes on record has already led the India Meteorological Department (IMD) to forecast below-normal rainfall for July, raising fears about reservoir levels, irrigation and electricity generation.
Experts said the increasing role of renewable energy, battery storage and stronger transmission networks will be crucial to improving the resilience of India's power system.
But until storage capacity can expand significantly, coal-fired generation is expected to remain the backbone of the grid during periods of extreme weather.
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