As the Bharat Jodo Yatra enters the Hindi heartland of Uttar Pradesh, the discussions have shifted from whether the yatra would be successful or not, to whether it will have any electoral impact. That in itself is some sort of achievement for the Congress party which has been struggling to get its mojo back. The Yatra did not touch Gujarat and Himachal, the two states which went to polls recently. Congress won one state while it lost badly in the other. So its impact can't be gauged yet. While the grand old party has categorically stated that BJY is not a political yatra and its objective is to unite the people of the country, its success or failure will also be judged by the electoral barometer.
BJY Has Repositioned RaGa On Political LandscapeÂ
Huge crowds are thronging to the yatra, people are jostling to have a glimpse of Rahul Gandhi, for whom it is a reinvention of sorts. No doubt it is a re-branding exercise for the Gandhi scion. The cadre of the party which has been badly demotivated after a string of losses needed something like this for rejuvenation. Rahul gets an opportunity to meet people from different demographies and get to understand India better, get a first hand feel of the real issues on the ground, something which he has been found lacking earlier. People who have formed an opinion about Rahul through WhatsApp messages get to know and understand him.
It's a zero-loss proposition for the Congress, as it is not in power, people don't expect it to solve issues. But they do need a lending ear to tell tale their problems. Rahul gets first-hand feedback. All's well up to this point. BJY has given the Congress the much-needed impetus. It has garnered loads of free publicity and coverage. However, to convert it into electoral success, a lot needs to be done.
Congress Faces Structural Issues
The Congress party is at an important cusp in its journey. It has been out of power in the center for nine years now, the longest period in its electoral history. The party is facing umpteen challenges, including from within, in its attempt to dislodge the BJP from the pole position. It's also now increasingly facing heat to maintain its main opposition status from some regional parties with national ambitions like the AAP, Trinamool Congress, BRS, etc. The recent drubbing of the Congress in Gujarat despite it winning Himachal speaks of the steep challenge it faces.
One data point explains the enormity of its challenge. INC received 12 crore votes in 1984 Lok Sabha polls; in 2019 elections it barely touched this number again. During the same period the total votes polled in general elections has increased from 25 crore to 61 crore (almost 2.5x).
The party faces structural issues which it needs to sort out as soon as possible to pose a challenge to the BJP and reap the benefits of BJY.
1. Sprucing Up OrganisationÂ
While the party has appointed a non-Gandhi, Mallikarjun Kharge, as its president, its organisation is not yet election ready. The post of vice president is vacant after Rahul was elevated to president post in 2017. Party's peer, the BJP, has 13 vice presidents. Mallikarjun needs hands to support him. Young leaders with potential could be made VPs, and it could also somewhat solve the exodus issue. Party also needs to conduct elections for CWC, its top-most decision-making unit.
2. Getting Back Votes From Regional PartiesÂ
The party has not only lost votes to the BJP but also to regional parties like TMC, YSRCP, TRS/BRS, SP, BSP, RJD, AAP, etc. The Congress needs to get some votes back from regional parties by positioning itself as the only alternative to BJP at the centre. It has primarily lost Muslim, SC-ST and OBC votes to regional forces. For example, the UPA received 51% minority votes, as per the Axis My India survey in 2019. Another 25% support from the community translates into 3%-4% additional vote share for the party.
What the Congress needs to establish is that the Congress is the only party which is the real and only opposition to the BJP at national level. All other parties either have already had an understanding with the BJP in the past (TMC, NC, JDS) or have a tacit understanding (BJD, BSP, YSRCP). It is only the Congress which can never form an alliance with the BJP, while all others can -- that is the USP of Congress to anti-BJP voters.
3. Nurturing OBC Leadership
In terms of caste-wise voting, the highest advantage enjoyed by the BJP vis-a-vis Congress is among the upper caste (+44%) and OBCs (+40%). A 10% higher support from these caste groups could get party an additional 5%-6% vote share. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has emerged as the tallest OBC leader. While both the CMs of Congress, Ashok Gehlot (Rajasthan) and Bhupesh Baghel (Chhattisgarh), come from the OBC community, party has not been able to encash this. It also needs to give key positions in party organisation to members from the OBC community.
4. Adding A New Voting Block
The party needs to add one or two large cohorts/voting blocks. It has to tap the disillusioned voters like youth (unemployment) and/or farmers (agri distress) or touch the emotional chord of women (price rise) voters through Priyanka Gandhi Vadra.
5. Presenting its VisionÂ
A shadow cabinet needs to take on the policies and programs of the BJP. This will not only help people understand the shortcomings of BJP's policies but also put the Congress philosophy/perspective in public on topics of national importance. Offering an alternate narrative that is not just anti-government but also pro-people would be very helpful. It has many leaders who have massive administrative experience and they need to be put to service. It needs to clearly articulate its vision and show people what it stands for.
To sum up, 10 years is a long enough period to create a natural anti- incumbency against any government. Inflation, agri-distress, unemployment are some of the burning issues today. However, anti-incumbency doesn't automatically translate into votes for the opposition. And this is where Congress will need to slog it out on the ground, BJY will come into play here. A localised campaign versus BJP's presidential-style has worked for the Congress in states. However, this requires double the effort versus a campaign which is run banking on a face. BJY has created the building blocks, now it needs to capitalise on it. Can it, is the million-dollar question.
Amitabh Tiwari is a political commentator, strategist, and consultant advising political parties and leaders. He was previously a corporate and investment banker.
The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of BQ Prime or its editorial team.
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