As the counting of votes begins on May 4, attention has once again shifted towards exit polls. They provide a tentative snapshot of electoral sentiment following Assembly elections in four states: West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Assam.
Although their forecasts are far from foolproof, they still wield considerable influence over expectations and the broader political narrative in the interim.
The exit polls suggest the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led combine is poised for a clear mandate in Assam and may also edge ahead in West Bengal. In Kerala, indications favour the United Democratic Front (UDF), while in Tamil Nadu, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)-led front is expected to enjoy a solid lead.
Exit Poll Prediction For West Bengal
Peoples Pulse predicted a win for the All India Trinamool Congress under Mamata Banerjee, assigning it a clear majority in the range of 177–187 seats. It placed the Bharatiya Janata Party at 95–110, the Left Front at 0–1, and the Indian National Congress at 1–3.
Elsewhere, projections leaned towards the BJP. Matrize estimated 146–161 seats for the party and 125–140 for the TMC. Poll Diary forecast 142–171 for the BJP against 95–110 for the TMC, while P-Marq projected 150–175 and 118–138 respectively. Chanakya Strategies put the BJP at 150–160 seats and the TMC at 130–140. Praja Poll offered the most bullish estimate for the BJP, placing it between 178 and 208 seats, ahead of the TMC's 85–110.
Exit Poll Prediction For Tamil Nadu
A majority of pollsters in Tamil Nadu appeared to favour the DMK-led combine, though projections varied widely. Axis My India stood out, assigning 98–120 seats to the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), while estimating 92–110 for DMK+ and 22–32 for the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) alliance.
VoteVibe gave 103–113 seats to DMK+, 114–124 to ADMK+, and 4–10 to TVK. Matrize projected 122–132 for DMK+, compared with 87–100 for ADMK+ and 10–12 for TVK. PMARQ also placed DMK+ in the lead with 125–145 seats, ahead of ADMK+ (65–85) and TVK (16–26). According to Peoples Insight, DMK+ could secure 120–140 seats, while ADMK+ may get 60–70 and TVK 30–40.
Peoples Pulse offered a similar range for DMK+ at 125–145 seats, with ADMK+ at 65–80 and TVK at 18–24. JVC reversed the trend, predicting 128–147 seats for ADMK+, 75–95 for DMK+, and 8–15 for TVK.
Exit Poll Prediction For Kerala
Most projections emerging from Kerala suggested a lead for the United Democratic Front. VoteVibe placed the Left Democratic Front (LDF) at 58–68 seats and the UDF ahead at 70–80. Matrize's estimates aligned closely, assigning 60–65 seats to the LDF, 70–75 to the UDF, and a marginal 3–5 to the National Democratic Alliance.
PMARQ projected 62–69 seats for the LDF and 71–79 for the UDF, with the Bharatiya Janata Party at 1–4. JVC forecasts suggested 52–61 seats for the LDF, 72–84 for the UDF, and 3–7 for the NDA. Axis My India gave the UDF a stronger edge at 78–90 seats, compared with 49–62 for the LDF, while Peoples Pulse estimated 75–85 for the UDF and 55–65 for the LDF, with the NDA largely confined to 0–3 seats.
Exit Poll Prediction For Assam
A majority of pollsters in Assam indicated a decisive mandate for the BJP-led alliance. VoteVibe projected 90–100 seats for BJP+, with the Indian National Congress-led grouping trailing at 23–33. Axis My India estimated 88–100 for BJP+ and 24–36 for Congress+, while JVC gave 88–101 seats to the BJP alliance and 23–33 to Congress. Matrize also favoured BJP+, placing it at 85–95 seats versus 25–32 for the Congress bloc.
PMARQ suggested 82–94 seats for BJP+ and 30–40 for Congress+, while Chanakya Strategies forecast 88–98 and 22–32, respectively. Poll Diary, too, pointed to a commanding BJP+ lead, estimating 86–101 seats against 15–26 for Congress+.
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