Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) monetary policy committee (MPC) began its meeting on Monday to review interest rates and inflation outlook. Economic analysts expect the MPC to keep rates steady at 5.25% in its April review. However, the main focus of this meeting will be the central bank's comments on the ongoing US-Iran war. The RBI MPC, which is meeting from April 6 to 8 to assess economic conditions and price stability, is expected to focus on the potential inflationary impacts of the war.
What To Expect from the April MPC Meeting?
The war in the Middle East has disrupted global energy markets, keeping Brent crude prices above $100 per barrel. As the critical Strait of Hormuz faces indefinite closure, India's energy imports have also been impacted. As a result, the rupee has weakened sharply, making FY26 its worst year in over a decade. Since the war started on Feb. 28, the currency has fallen over 4%. According to experts, the rupee may face more pressure if crude prices stay high.
While the RBI has put in place certain measures to offer temporary relief, the further trajectory of the rupee and interest rates will be determined by global macro factors, economists say.
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Recently, central banks in Australia and Japan also raised interest rates to control inflation. Colombia and Brazil followed with similar measures.
Meanwhile, the RBI has cut interest rates by a total of 125 basis points since February 2025. Its last rate cut was in December, following which experts largely anticipated a pause. In January, Reuters reported the central bank was expected to "hold its key interest rate steady at 5.25% through 2026", while gauging the "impact of previous rate cuts" on the economy.
However, experts now see RBI as maintaining a cautious approach during future MPC reviews, triggered by dramatic changes in the global situation. Even so, it will likely maintain its current rates for the near future.
When And Where To Watch RBI MPC Decision Live?
The official MPC statement is scheduled for release on April 8, following the conclusion of the three-day meeting. The RBI announcement can be viewed live on the RBI's social media handles. Audiences can also follow the latest updates in real time and track key highlights on YouTube and other social media channels of the NDTV Network. After the announcement, Governor Sanjay Malhotra will hold a press conference at noon.
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