It's the age of influencers — not the kind that show up on your feed and make you wonder how they got 100k followers. This is about countries.
In today's world, managing relationships, building clout and choosing the right partners is basically the international version of being an influencer. Countries like India, China, Japan, Turkiye, Germany and France are all trying to do the same. Sometimes they team up with like-minded nations, sometimes purely for economic reasons, even if those friendships make others uncomfortable. One clear example of this is the quiet teaming up of India, Russia and the United Arab Emirates.
The premise of the story was simple: Russia needed buyers and payment routes after losing Europe as its customer base post the Ukraine war. India needed cheap energy without having to pick sides. The UAE needed to diversify its income sources, monetise neutrality, and attract investments and professionals. This triangular relationship, although it began with the oil trade, has now expanded beyond that.
India-Russia Relations Widen Beyond Convenience
Before the war, Russia supplied roughly 2% of India's crude imports. By FY25, that figure had risen to roughly around 40%, making India Russia's second-largest crude buyer after China. India-Russia commerce rose from about $13 billion in FY21 to roughly $69 billion by FY25, with energy contributing close to $58 billion. More important than volume was institutionalisation: term contracts replaced spot buying, trade settlement in rupees and rubles, and so on.
Although de-dollarisation was necessary to avoid sanctions, Russia ended up with surplus rupees lying idle in its bank accounts. Russians can use those rupees to enter the Indian capital markets through Sberbank and JSC First Asset Management's India-focused funds. This partnership has now extended into defence co-production, nuclear energy, exploring Arctic routes and icebreakers, fertiliser supply and even media, via RT India.
India-UAE Integrating More Than Ever
The 2022 Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement transcended the India-UAE relationship from energy to other sectors. The countries signed a ten-year LNG contract last month, which will make the UAE India's second-largest LNG supplier after Qatar. Bilateral trade crossed $100 billion by FY25 from $43 billion in FY21, with non-oil trade driving most of the growth.
Emirati sovereign funds such as ADIA, Mubadala and ADQ have scaled investments across Indian renewables, ports, roads, digital infrastructure and healthcare. The financial layer too has deepened in recent years through the rupee-dirham settlement in trade, while linking UPI-AANI and RuPay-JAYWAN for remittances is also under discussion. Both countries plan to expand this relationship into cooperation in defence, space, and advanced technology.
UAE-Russia Going Beyond Oil & Logistics
The UAE became central to Russia's sanctions-management system. Fujairah port in the UAE has been the hub for Russian oil after sanctions. It has even expanded its capacity in the last few years.
Beyond oil, the UAE became Russia's primary transactional gateway. Russian gold and diamonds moved through Dubai's vaults and exchanges. Russian firms and individuals have relocated capital and business operations at scale. As thousands of Russian companies are now registered in the UAE, FDI is rising. Most importantly, the UAE, among many other Arab countries, became a neutral venue for resolving Russia-Ukraine issues and back-channel dialogue.
Europe Wired In Indirectly
This triangle already has an awkward fourth participant: Europe. It enters in two ways.
First, despite sanctions on Russian crude, Europe has benefited from indirect energy flows from Russia via India and the UAE, thanks to this triangle. This arrangement has helped Europe stabilise energy supplies without direct exposure to Russia.
Second, Europe has deliberately deepened ties with India and the UAE beyond energy, through trade agreements, investment links and strategic dialogues. These efforts are aimed at anchoring long-term economic access to Asia and the Gulf, and at building one of the largest trade corridors through the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC).
So, this makes Europe a smaller part of this triangle, even if it will not admit it openly.
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None of the three countries believes energy alone can sustain a long-term partnership. That is why they have all moved into non-energy areas. This keeps the relationship relevant even if wartime dependencies ease.
Whether this poses a threat to the dollar or to the US is largely beside the point. Countries are widening their options and staying connected to multiple systems at once. They are trying to insure themselves against uncertainty because protection and flexibility matter more than confrontation in today's world. At the moment, this relationship can be better understood as an 'adjustment' in the global order.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of NDTV Profit or its affiliates. Readers are advised to conduct their own research or consult a qualified professional before making any investment or business decisions. NDTV Profit does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented in this article.
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