The peak power demand at the start of April is surprisingly still below the 200-gigawatt level and coal stock improved by a tenth on account of better supplies, giving hope that the country may be in a better position to tackle any possible electricity crisis this year.
The total coal stock—an important component to meet the power demand—rose 9.48% to 37.10 million tonnes as of April 4, in comparison to the month ago period, as the overall imported coal stock by the imported coal-based plants rose by 29.44% month-on-month, according to the Central Electricity Authority's website.
The overall imported coal stock was 5,900 tonnes at the domestic coal-fired pit head plants on April 4 compared to no imports as of March 4. Imports rose 25% over the previous month to 2.2 million tonnes at the non pit-head plants. The domestic coal stock increased 7.66% month-on-month or by 2.2 MT, the data showed.
The average peak power demand in the first four days of April was 185 GW, in contrast with the broad expectation of it crossing 230 GW in the summer, especially after temperatures beat a 120-year record in February. The peak power demand since the February high has remained below 200 GW.
"The government has managed the coal stock situation well this time," said Rupesh Sankhe, vice president and oil analyst at Elara Securities India Pvt. "Lower-than-expected peak power demand and better coal management initiatives from the Ministry of Power to import coal helped to improve coal inventory days from eight days in February to 13 days as of now."
Out of the 180 coal-based power plants in the country, 35 that source fuel locally and seven that rely on imports have less than 25% of the normal stock—considered a critical position. This is lower in comparison to 47 and seven plants, respectively, in March. Seven plants are not in operation and five are based on washery rejects.
The CEA has mandated a coal stock of 17 days for pit-head plants and 26 days for non-pit-head plants between February and June every year. If this level is breached, the coal stock is considered critical. India has an installed power capacity of 2,04,436 MW, with a daily coal requirement of 2.78 MT.
The Union government made it mandatory under Section 11 of the Electricity Act to compulsorily operate ICB plants from March 16 till June by using imported coal. The weather department has forecasted above normal temperatures till May after record February heat.
The country has an installed power capacity of 27,500 MW on imported coal, but the bulk of that was lying idle because of the higher cost of fuel. Some of the major plants under this category include the 4,000-MW power projects of Adani Power Ltd. and Tata Power Ltd. in Mundra, Gujarat, and Essar Power Ltd.'s 1,200-MW Salaya power plant in Gujarat.
The all-India thermal plant load factor level is expected to improve from 58.9% in fiscal 2022 to 64% in fiscal 2023 and 65.5% in fiscal 2024, led by healthy demand growth and limited thermal capacity addition, ICRA Ltd. had said in a note earlier. The full-year growth for the previous fiscal is estimated at 9.5–10%. It's likely to moderate in the new fiscal, but remain healthy at 5.5–6%.
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