Political unrest, turmoil and chaos have been defining characteristics for Iran's present scenario. With the official death toll surpassing 5,000, the dispute appears to be far from over. Would a potential US intervention change things for the better in the long-term? Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group, does not seem to think so.
Besides Iran, another country which shifted geopolitical tides in the very start of the year is Venezuela. Washington's special interest in rescuing both these countries from exploitative regimes is a common denominator for them.
However, citing the example of Venezuela, Bremmer highlighted how even a decapitation strike in Caracas ceased to eliminate the repressive regime. In a conversation with NDTV's Vishnu Som on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, the Eurasia chief said: "Even if there is a decapitation strike in Iran, that does not mean you are getting rid of the Iranian regime."
"You had a decapitation strike in Venezuela, it's the same regime in place. I do not see a road for democracy there, I still think the regime would be repressive," Bremmer added.
Recalling public unrests of 2022 and 2009, he said that 2026 is also going to see a repressive regime "with or without (Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali) Khamenei".
Bremmer pointed out that even without Khamenei, Iran will have relatively well-paid and trained groups that are "very comfortable with using repression to ensure that they maintain monopoly of state power", such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps along with the Basij.
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Further, he stated that the likelihood of the US intervention has gone way up, adding that "we are not out of the woods on Iran".
The reason for a potential strike, according to Bremmer, is Khamenei's unwillingness to provide meaningful concessions on the issues that would "move the needle" with the Americans, such as the ballistic missile programme, uranium enrichment and the like.
The Eurasia chief also addressed US President Donald Trump's obsession with taking control of Greenland and said it has more to do with Trump's ego than it does with strategy.
"Historically, his life and greatest success have been about promoting his brand,” Bremmer added. "Even on things he doesn't own, he wants them to be named Trump. He gains some benefit from that.”
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