Christophe Barraud, known as the "world's most accurate economist", has predicted a victory for Republican nominee Donald Trump in the upcoming US presidential elections.
Barraud, the chief economist and strategist at Market Securities Monaco, has also projected a "clean sweep" for the Republican Party, also known as GOP, in the Senate elections.
“Looking at different metrics such as betting markets, polls, election modellers' forecasts, and financial markets, as of now, the most probable outcomes are: Trump victory, GOP clean sweep,” Barraud posted on social media platform X on Monday.
The forecast comes barely a week before the electoral showdown between Trump and his Democrat rival Kamala Harris on Nov. 5. The prediction assumes significance as Barraud has topped Bloomberg's economic forecast rankings for 11 of the last 12 years. This has earned him the tag of the world's most accurate economist.
🇺🇸 #USElection2024 | Looking at different metrics such as betting markets, polls, election modelers' forecasts, financial markets, as of now, the most probable outcomes are:
October 28, 2024
1️⃣ #Trump victory
2️⃣ #GOP clean sweep
*Polymarket: https://t.co/wHYuypGbPm
*Kalshi:… pic.twitter.com/RV2DlCw9FtAlong with the presidential elections, voters in the US will also elect all 435 members of the House of Representatives—the lower chamber of the US Congress—and 33 out of 100 members of the Senate, which is the upper chamber of the Congress.
AdvertisementBarraud predicts that the GOP will likely take control of the Senate, but the House of Representatives polls may be closer.
Economy Growth Projections
Barraud, in an interview with Business Insider, said a Trump win combined with Republican control of the US Congress may result in a temporary boost to the US economy.
In such a scenario, the US GDP may expand by 2.1% to 2.3% in 2025, Barraud said. This is higher than the 1.6% growth estimate shared by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
However, a split verdict—with Trump controlling the White House and Democrats holding the Congress—may pose roadblocks for Trump to roll out his domestic economic policies, Barraud reportedly said. This, in turn, will shift his focus toward tariffs, which can hurt long-term US and global growth, he added.
AdvertisementOn Monday, renowned statistician Nate Silver also predicted a victory for Trump in the presidential elections. Silver, who has made accurate projections in five presidential polls, said there is a 53.1% chance of Trump returning to the White House.
However, top American historian Allan Lichtman stated in September that the odds favour Harris. Lichtman's projection holds weight as he has correctly predicted nine out of the last 10 US presidential elections, which has earned him the tag of 'Nostradamus of US elections'.
Lichtman, who uses his 'Keys to the White House' model to predict the results, uses 13 factors to evaluate the strength of the contestants. According to him, Harris holds the edge on eight 'keys', whereas Trump is ahead on three.
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