Oil rose for a third day after President Donald Trump warned Iran to make a nuclear deal or face military strikes, reviving concerns about potential unrest and disruption in the Middle East.
West Texas Intermediate climbed toward $64 a barrel after advancing 1.3% in the previous sessions to close at the highest level since late September. In a social media post on Wednesday, Trump said US ships he ordered to the region were ready to fulfill their mission “with speed and violence, if necessary."
Trump's latest threats have injected a risk premium into prices, even as the market faces downward pressure from swelling supply. Traders are paying a premium for bullish call options for the longest stretch in about 14 months to protect against the risk of a new confrontation between the US and Iran.
Options markets have been a key channel for traders wagering on heightened geopolitical risk in the Middle East in recent years. Premiums for calls spiked after the US conducted a military strike on Iran in 2025 but then collapsed after it became apparent oil facilities had been spared.
A US strike could imperil crude flows from the Middle East, a region that accounts for about a third of global supply. Iranian retaliation could also extend to disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passage that separates Iran and the Arabian peninsula. Tankers carrying oil and liquefied natural gas transit through the strait to deliver cargoes worldwide.
Trump has repeatedly issued warnings on Iran, but those have most recently been linked to Tehran's deadly crackdown on protests rather than its nuclear activities. The US president previously said the regime's atomic program was “obliterated” in strikes in June that targeted three facilities.
In response, Iran has said it stands ready for dialogue but warned it would respond with unprecedented force if pushed. Tehran has stepped up diplomacy with key powers in the Middle East as it looks to head off more conflict with US.
Prices:
- WTI for March delivery climbed 0.6% to $63.58 a barrel at 8:10 a.m. in Singapore.
- Brent for March settlement closed 1.2% higher at $68.40 a barrel on Wednesday.
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